UFC St. Louis Gambling Preview: Will Derrick Lewis add another knockout to his UFC record?
UFC 301 is in the books, which means it’s on to St. Louis!
UFC St. Louis goes down this Saturday from the Enterprise Center in the Gateway to the West, headlined by a heavyweight slugfest between Derrick Lewis and Rodrigo Nascimento, along with 12 other fights. Can Lewis add to his record number of UFC knockouts, and what are the best bets this weekend? Let’s dive in.
As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Straight Bets
Chase Hooper (+120)
I do not believe that Hooper should be the underdog in this fight. Viacheslav Borschchev is the more physical fighter and the far superior striker, but “Slava Claus” is a uniquely bad defensive wrestler and Hooper has a huge advantage on the floor. This is as straightforward of a fight as you can draw up: Hooper survives on the feet and gets takedowns. From there, it should be formulaic. And as Hooper continues to develop as a fighter and simply grow into his body, it will get progressively easier for him to win fights like this.
Tabatha Ricci (-135)
I have dubbed this fight “Sharknado” as “Baby Shark” Ricci takes on “The Tiny Tornado” Tecia Pennington (née Torres). And in the cinematic masterpiece that was Sharknado, it was the sharks that mattered more to the story. Sure, the tornadoes were destructive, but without the sharks, that movie is just Twister. The sharks made the movie, and the “Baby Shark” makes this fight.
Yes, that is all the breakdown I will be doing on this matchup.
Prop Bets
Derrick Lewis To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (-135)
Reports of Lewis being washed up are greatly exaggerated. Lewis is certainly not the fighter he was at the peak of his powers, but his recent poor run of form is really a testament to how fighters age. When you get over the hill, weaknesses exacerbate. Lewis was always an underwhelming grappler, more reliant on his physicality than technique, and as that dropped off, more people took advantage. But Nascimento isn’t one of those dudes. This is someone who got knocked out by Chris Daukaus, and I have to imagine Lewis can do the same. You’re not getting a lot of extra value with this prop, but every little bit helps.
Robelis Despaigne To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (-165)
Whenever you have the chance to lay minus odds on a prop bet for a 35-year-old heavyweight with only five professional fights, you have to do it.
But seriously, I love Despaigne. We’re talking about an Olympic medalist Taekwondo practitioner who is absolutely enormous and boops people in seconds. Since his professional debut, Despaigne is 4-0 with a combined fight time of 37 seconds! What’s not to love?
Moreover, Waldo Cortes-Acosta is not very good. He’s fine as far as this era of UFC heavyweights goes, but the man is a boxer who doesn’t really knock people out all that often. Give me “The Big Booper” all day.
Parlay of the Week
As always, I love me a gimmick. And while there are three St. Louis fighters competing on this card, only two of them are viable parlay fodder (I’m sorry but I just can’t trust Charles Johnson). I had no other option but to pair them up.
Joaquin Buckley (-130)
I am convinced this fight won’t actually happen. Both Buckley and Nursulton Ruziboev competed five weeks ago at UFC Atlantic City, and while that shouldn’t be a big issue for Buckley, Ruziboev is now cutting down to welterweight. That’s a big ask for man who is 6-foot-5, even under the best of circumstances, much less on a quick turnaround.
Ruziboev somehow made the weight (I know he’s competed at welterweight many times before), but I still think that’s going to do more harm than good for him. Ruziboev is a sneaky good fighter, but if he’s coming in here diminished, that’s a tough place to be against a guy as powerful as Buckley who is also reaching his fighting peak.
Sean Woodson (-218)
Alex Caceres is a tough out for anyone, but this should be Woodson’s ticket to the top 15. Caceres is a little older and a little slower, and he’s never been a super high-volume fighter. Caceres is more of a jack-of-all-trades type, and that’s poorly suited against Woodson, who should have the run of play on the feet and is more than good enough as a wrestler to keep things standing. I expect Woodson to outpoint Caceres cleanly.
Parlay these two bets together for +158 odds.
Wrap Up
We got hammered at UFC 301. Nailed our Jose Aldo underdog pick but whiffed on all the props (though if there is a silver lining, I was on the right side of all of them). Oh well. It’s on to St. Louis!
Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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