Mavericks-Thunder has turned into a battle of intentional fouls and whether Luka Doncic will stay healthy

We knew the Oklahoma City Thunder’s second-round series with the Dallas Mavericks had the potential to be a classic playoff duel. But no one possibly could’ve predicted what we’re actually getting so far — in terms and literal games of tag during gameplay.

Through three games, Dallas holds a 2-1 series lead in arguably the most unorthodox way. (Yes, even with some strange press conferences.)

Despite Luka Doncic battling various ailments — including a knee and ankle injury — the Mavericks have, more or less, imposed their will on an undersized Thunder squad. Even without backup center Maxi Kleber, the Mavericks’ front line of Dereck Lively II Daniel Gafford has been too much to deal with for Oklahoma City, which really only has Chet Holmgren as an answer.

That’s what had led the Thunder to wave the white towel on defense and elect to foul Lively in hopes he would miss enough free throws during Saturday’s Game 3. It didn’t work this time, but it appears a strategy Oklahoma City will be comfortable using again soon.

When considering how beat up Doncic is, this series feels unpredictable and chaotic in exactly the way you want this time of year:

Despite all the chaos, Dallas’ early success has oddsmakers with BetMGM favoring the Mavericks in Game 4 with a healthy -125 on the moneyline. After seeing how the Mavericks have pushed the Thunder around, making the youngest team in the playoffs very uncomfortable, it’s hard to disagree.

Dallas has Oklahoma City’s in a real bind on both ends of the court, as evidenced by this stat:

A Mavericks defense stat for @Boweman55: the Thunder have the worst expected eFG% based on shot location via @cleantheglass, the highest mid-range frequencey and the second-lowest non-corner three rate.

Mavericks have them way far away from their gameplan.

— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) May 12, 2024

Oklahoma City’s best chance might legitimately be a healthy combination of hoping Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams make enough clutch shots, Lively missing enough free throws, and Doncic wearing down instead of getting healthier the longer this series goes down. While that mix is definitely feasible, those are a lot of boxes to check for Oklahoma City. It’s not entirely in the Thunder’s control in the manner you’d want it to be.

That’s even with a heroic performance from Gilgeous-Alexander in the coming week. The Thunder might literally just be too undermanned this playoff run.

Still, depending on how Doncic feels, his health sure seems to be a factor that would extend this series to seven games. And, at this stage, that’s a treat I think we’re fortunately in store for with this thoroughly unpredictable and wild series.