PREDICTIONS: Tyson Fury vs Oleksandr Usyk and more!

Who wins Fury vs Usyk on Saturday?

Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk finally square off for the undisputed heavyweight championship of the world on Saturday in Riyadh.

Two unbeaten champions, the men who have fought their way to this spot, and our first undisputed heavyweight champion to be crowned in a quarter-century, the first in the four-belt era.

So who wins boxing’s most highly-anticipated fight on the current schedule?

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Scott Christ (20-2)

I still think Fury is a nightmare matchup for Usyk, but nightmares have degrees, too. Some can shake you up pretty good, and others are just a little unpleasant but you get up, go to the bathroom, and your day goes on, having forgotten about it by the time you’re making your breakfast.

Fury won’t be easy for Usyk, but the same is true in reverse. Usyk’s clever, smart, and has had a lot of time to fully prepare for even the best Tyson Fury that is possible at age 36, with years of wear and tear, probably more outside the ring than in it. An on-point Fury is still a very good fighter at worst, but he’s never been a flawless one or anything, even in his biggest wins, and none of his biggest wins have come against anyone who fights remotely like Oleksandr Usyk, with the skills and ability Usyk brings to the matchup.

If Usyk is prepared to be busy and can get Fury chasing it, Tyson is the type who can be baited into mistakes. It’s not like Deontay Wilder or the clubbing Francis Ngannou are the only guys to ever put him down or hurt him or land clean.

On the other side, Usyk will have to be just about perfect. But I think this is the sort of fight where he can be, if ever he can be. Anthony Joshua ain’t Fury, but he won twice over 24 rounds without making the critical mistake against AJ. I’m shading it to Usyk, in part because I really think he’ll win on this particular date in this matchup, and in part because I’m itching to roll the dice on one. Usyk SD-12

Wil Esco (18-4)

There was a time when I was completely certain that Fury was just too big a man for Usyk to handle, given that Fury is quite the capable operator himself. If anything, my conviction on that front has softened greatly because of all the delays in making this fight happen, which I believe mostly suits Usyk. Part of me now wonders if Fury might’ve given Usyk too much time to physically acclimate himself to heavyweight to where a win over him is no longer a sure thing.

If I’m being honest I just don’t think there’s any real way to dislike Usyk as a person and a fighter, so I would naturally prefer to see him take a win this weekend over Fury. But Fury seems to have taken his preparation for this fight seriously judging by his current condition and because there’s no likelihood of Usyk stopping Fury, the only real question is whether he can outpoint him over 12. Fury is taller, longer, and moves well on his feet so I still believe gives Usyk an unfavorable style matchup, and I suspect Fury will be able to take a decision in a fight that probably won’t be aesthetically pleasing. Fury SD-12

John Hansen (17-5)

If nothing else, the Venit, Serravi, Pecuniam era of Saudi Arabian sports has done wonders for taking matchups out of the online argument stage and turning them into reality. But, ironically, Saudi Arabia spending a smaller fortune to put on Fury vs Francis Ngannou created an even bigger hypothetical: What if this fight had happened in December?

Fury vs Usyk could and should have happened just 56 days after Ngannou, and don’t forget that it was Fury himself threatening a lawsuit if Usyk didn’t make that date. Instead, Fury changed his tune after the Ngannou fight featured not The Greatest Heavyweight of All Time, but a vaguely man-shaped lump of poorly mixed tapioca pudding, fighting with all the passion and intensity of a broken down twin mattress left for trash in an alley.

Even an embarrassed and motivated Tyson Fury probably couldn’t have done enough in eight weeks to carve the heavy breathing butter sculpture of October 2023 into proper fighting shape. And any echo of that Fury would have been food for a man with the skills and discipline of Usyk. But, seven months is a lot of time to prepare! And the Fury we’ll see on Saturday will no doubt be the best and sharpest version possible.

If there’s anyone with the skills and savvy to beat a dialed-in Fury, Usyk is the likeliest candidate. But, size is a major factor, and the cruiserweight legend is giving up 5 inches of height, 7 inches of reach, and 50 pounds of weight. Against a fully focused Fury, who feels no shame smothering and stinking out a fight if it gives him the surest path to victory? It’s likely too much to overcome. Especially if the referee lets Fury grab and flop on his foe, which pretty much every other official has allowed up to now.

The best version of this fight is a tightly refereed affair that forces two masters of movement and craft to give us a pure boxing match for the ages, and anyone could win that one. The likeliest version, though, is one where Tyson Fury is free to indulge in his darkest and dullest arts, using his size advantages to suffocate both Usyk and the fight for 12 miserable rounds. Fury UD-12

Patrick Stumberg (19-3)

Man, I just feel like it’s Usyk’s time. Fury’s weak performance against Francis Ngannou, the sheer amount of damage he’s accumulated over the years, his struggles with lesser technicians than Usyk, the steady deterioration of his footwork; maybe I’m letting my unkind view of him as a person color my assessment of his fighting skills, but I really think this is the end of the line.

The way I see it, Fury’s best chance lies in referee Mark Nelson giving him the sort of holding leeway that Richardson Hitchins got against Gustavo Lemos. There are other ways to impose your size and strength than just leaning on someone, of course, but I don’t think Usyk gets enough credit for the way he handled another tank of a man in Anthony Joshua. Assuming he doesn’t get illegally bear-hugged into oblivion, I don’t see Usyk wilting in the face of Fury’s physicality, which is bad news for “The Gypsy King” considering Usyk’s edges in speed, movement, and durability.

I’m sure Fury has worked his arse off to get in the best shape possible. Between a career of abuse and Usyk’s impeccable skills, though, it’s not enough. Usyk drops him at least once en route to a close but clear decision win. Usyk UD-12

Quick Picks!

Emanuel Navarrete vs Denys Berinchyk

• Scott: Navarrete MD-12
• Wil: Navarrete UD-12
• John: Navarrete TKO-10
• Patrick: Navarrete SD-12

Jai Opetaia vs Mairis Briedis 2

• Scott: Opetaia TKO-11
• Wil: Opetaia UD-12
• John: Opetaia UD-12
• Patrick: Opetaia UD-12

Frank Sanchez vs Agit Kabayel

• Scott: Sanchez UD-12
• Wil: Sanchez UD-12
• John: Sanchez UD-12
• Patrick: Sanchez UD-12