ESPN Ranked Caleb Williams’ Supporting Cast Vs. Previous #1 Picks
Since the NFL draft came into being in 1936, a quarterback has been selected #1 overall 36 times. Caleb Williams was the latest among that number. However, this time feels different compared to the others. That is because the Chicago Bears held the pick. They were not the garden variety team holding the top pick in the draft. Most years, it’s the worst team in the league with a roster that is in dire need of work. Chicago went 7-10 last season and was 6-6 down the stretch after a brutal 1-4 start. They feel like a young team on the rise.
Even better is the fact they did a ton of work upgrading the offense this off-season. It’s been enough to make people wonder if Williams might actually be stepping into the best situation a #1 pick ever has. ESPN’s analytics expert Aaron Schatz decided to get to the bottom of that question. He looked back over the past 40 years of quarterbacks selected #1 overall and in the top 12. He then listed where Williams ranked among the top picks and among the high 1st rounders.
His findings were clear: best among #1 picks and second-best of the modern era.
“1. Caleb Williams, 2024 Bears
Yes, Williams easily has the best situation of any quarterback chosen No. 1, at least since 1980. In my value estimates, the difference between the Bears’ skill players and the 2009 Lions is roughly the same as the gap between the Lions and the No. 12 team (Jeff George and the 1990 Colts).
We’ll start with DJ Moore, who has cracked 1,000 receiving yards in four of the past five seasons and is coming off career highs with 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns in 2023. Then comes Keenan Allen, who had 1,000 receiving yards in five of the past seven seasons for the Chargers and had 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns in only 13 games last season. The Rome Odunze pick makes Williams the first quarterback picked No. 1 to play with a first-round wide receiver from the same draft.
At tight end, the Bears will have both Cole Kmet (73-719-6 in 2023) and Gerald Everett (51-411-3 for the Chargers last season). The starting running back, D’Andre Swift, had 1,049 yards and five touchdowns for the Eagles and will be backed up by last year’s Bears starter, Khalil Herbert. Even the offensive line is better than you think — it was fifth in pass block win rate and second in run block win rate last season.”
Caleb Williams stepped into the ideal situation.
Only one quarterback managed to get a better setup. That was Daunte Culpepper in 1999 when he inherited Randy Moss, Cris Carter, Robert Smith, and an offensive line with three Pro Bowlers. Williams has a six-time Pro Bowl receiver (Keenan Allen), a receiver who should be a Pro Bowler (D.J. Moore), a top-10 pick at wide receiver (Rome Odunze), a quality tight end (Cole Kmet), and a 1,000-yard rusher (D’Andre Swift). One also can’t forget that he’ll likely have a top-15 defense that will keep him in games on the other side of the ball.
The only source of uncertainty is the offensive line. Even there, the Bears have some intriguing pieces. Darnell Wright had a strong rookie season in 2023. Teven Jenkins plays like a Pro Bowler when healthy. Braxton Jones showed encouraging progress at left tackle. Caleb Williams won’t be standing behind five turnstiles; that much is clear. If Matt Eberflus and his staff properly manage their resources, the young quarterback shouldn’t have trouble finding success immediately.