MLB Trade Deadline: 3 teams that should sell (Mets!) and 2 that should buy (Reds!)

The trade deadline is almost here and quite a few teams have some big decisions to make

Major League Baseball’s July 30th trade deadline is rapidly approaching and there’s not a ton of games left for teams to decide if they can contend this year or should pack it in.

The July 16 All-Star Game certainly doesn’t help that equation, but if we’re being totally honest here, there really aren’t that many teams on the fence.

Deciding between buying or selling is simply an exercise in pragmatism. But for those front offices who still haven’t figured this out, we’re here to to help.

Here are what five teams on the fringe of the postseason picture should do at the deadline.

All odds via BetMGM

Pittsburgh Pirates: Sell

• Preseason World Series odds: +8000
• Current Odds: +25000

Thanks to Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Oneil Cruz, the Pirates have a pretty solid core developing, but they’re still not ready to contend for the National League Central just yet. Despite being 4.0 games back in the Wild Card race, Pittsburgh should stay the course with its young stars and not worry about playing for October just yet.

Instead, the Pirates should look to see what they can get for the likes of Rowdy Tellez, Michael A. Taylor, Martin Perez, Mitch Keller, David Bednar and Aroldis Chapman.

This is a franchise that very carefully picks its spots when its time to go all in. It feels like we’re another year or two away from that.

Cincinnati Reds: Buy

• Preseason World Series odds: +4000
• Current Odds: +15000

The Reds might be half a game behind the Pirates right now, but they’re much further ahead when it comes to talent. Because many of their star contributors are still pre-arbitration deals, Cincy somehow has the 24th-highest payroll in the league.

Elly De La Cruz, Jonathan India, Matt McLain, Nick Lodolo and Alexis Diaz won’t become unrestricted free agents until much closer to 2030. Which makes this the perfect time to go all-in and take on some bigger contracts at the deadline.

Perhaps some names from our next seller….

 New York Mets: Sell

• Preseason World Series odds: +2500
• Current Odds: +6600

Is it possible the Mets continue their Grimace-fueled run and reach the postseason? Sure. But do you want to put your faith in a McDonald’s character to will the team to October? Probably not.

The Mets are likely getting a revamp under new president David Stearns, anyways, so might as well get a head start now and move on from Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Martinez, Jose Quintana and whatever part of the bullpen is still healthy.

The pain of giving up on a team thats 2.5 games back of the Wild Card (13.5 back in the NL East) will be offset when Stearns offers the world to Juan Soto this winter.

Kansas City Royals: Buy

• Preseason World Series odds: +20000
• Current Odds: +5000

As of Tuesday, the Royals are 49-43 and 8.5 games back of the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central (1.5 back of the Wild Card). They also have a pretty soft schedule remaining with two more series against the White Sox and Tigers each, as well as matchups with the Nationals, Cubs and Angels.

That’s to say nothing of 13 combined games against the Twins and Guardians. All of it points to a Kansas City team that can make up ground in a hurry and shouldn’t be writing off this season at all.

The World Series window is slowly opening again for the Royals and now is the time to take advantage with a trash AL Central still up for grabs.

Toronto Blue Jays: Sell

• Preseason World Series odds: +1600
• Current Odds: +20000

The party is over in Toronto and all that’s left to do is clean house.

That of course means trading Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and as painful as that sounds, the notion of what the Blue Jays could get in return should ease the sting.

Toronto is eight games under .500, last in the AL East and 8.5 games back of a Wild Card. Is it possible to make a run? Sure. But this is a team with the eighth-highest payroll in baseball getting pretty meager returns on the field.

Move on from George Springer and pretty much any healthy starting pitcher and see what you can do this offseason with a restocked farm system.