Why Caleb Williams’ Bears shouldn't fear the 'Hard Knocks curse'

To most casual observers, the Chicago Bears finally being featured on Hard Knocks this summer should be cause for celebration.

The Bears are one of the NFL’s most popular teams now quarterbacked by Caleb Williams, a potential generational signal-caller who practically oozes charisma. Their time in the limelight will be a comprehensive inside look at the league’s charter franchise that most people could have only dreamed of seeing before.

But the history of teams featured on Hard Knocks might give Bears fans (and anyone betting on them in 2024) some pause.

According to Sports Odds History, most squads who have been the Hard Knocks subject have actually underperformed their preseason win totals. This data goes back over two decades now. It almost seems like it’s a curse to have those cameras following your organization for essentially the entire preseason.

At face value, that isn’t a great sign for Chicago:

Despite the historical Hard Knocks ledger saying the Bears are likely about to underperform their 8.5 over/under win total with BetMGM, I’m not buying this premise.

Why?

Most of the teams previously featured on the show have been terrible! They’ve been uninspired, insipid products that probably shouldn’t have gotten the HBO/NFL Films treatment in the first place.

For example, there was the 2007 Kansas City Chiefs. That team’s preseason quarterback battle was Damon Huard vs. Brodie Croyle. Who? Exactly. How about the 2016 Los Angeles Rams? Jeff “7-9” Fisher was still the head coach, and Jared Goff remained a raw quarterback prospect who needed a lot of hand-holding before he could start to succeed.

The point is that Hard Knocks hasn’t always picked the cream of the crop to film.

None of this is to say that the Bears are a perfect choice, either.

As exciting as Williams is on a burgeoning roster with a lot of talent and depth on both sides of the ball, he’s still a rookie quarterback. He will likely eventually see some measure of struggles on the field. That’s just how it works. Plus, there’s the Matt Eberflus factor. Are we sure he’s the guy to be the steward of the most hyped young Bears quarterback ever? I have some doubts.

Even then, I’m not betting that these Bears fall victim to any sort of documentary’s curse.

The NFC remains a complete crapshoot other than its clear top heavyweights in Detroit and San Francisco. And there’s enough top-end firepower in Williams’ arsenal to anticipate him being much more comfortable than your typical doe-eyed young quarterback. Having D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze as weapons and a top-10 defense for complementary support as a rookie is a godsend. Just as it did with the Detroit Lions, Hard Knocks is more likely to become something that opens our eyes to the Bears’ immense potential than anything else.

The Bears are about to be put under a microscope unlike ever before. The spotlight will treat them much kinder than you think.