UFC Vegas 94 predictions
Can you believe it’s been a month since we last nestled ourselves into the cozy confines of the UFC APEX? You probably can and you’re probably grateful, but still, that gap is worth noting considering how frequent these fan-free Las Vegas visits are.
That’s right, we’re up to UFC Vegas 94, which takes place Saturday and is headlined by a strawweight contenders’ bout between Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba. Not only is this a high-level contest in one of MMA’s best divisions, it also has legitimate title implications as champion Zhang Weili has cleared out much of her opposition with the exception of the injury-plagued Tatiana Suarez.
Unfortunately for Lemos, she’s included in that group as she’s only one fight removed from a failed bid to capture Zhang’s belt. Currently No. 5 at 115 pounds in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and No. 16 on the pound-for-pound list, Lemos has the credentials of a top contender, but is likely fighting just to hold onto her spot.
Jandiroba, on the other hand, would be a fresh challenger and one with a wealth of quality experience. The grappling specialist has had a great career, one that could be capped off nicely with a UFC title fight tacked onto the résumé.
Also on the main card, South Korean featherweights Seung Woo Choi and Doo Ho Choi (no relation) are in action against Steve Garcia and Bill Algeo, respectively, The Ultimate Fighter 31 lightweight winner Kurt Holobaugh fights Kaynan Kruschewsky, Cody Durden and Bruno Silva meet in a fiery flyweight clash, and featherweights Jeong Yeong Lee and Hyder Amil kick off the ESPN portion of the show.
What: UFC Vegas 94
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, July 20. The five-fight preliminary card begins at 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+.
Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba
Is Virna Jandiroba destined to be an also-ran?
Nobody should question that Jandiroba is one of the best strawweights of her generation, but until recently she’s always been just a step behind the very best in the division. Amanda Lemos has already proven that she belongs in the upper echelon with a string of highlight-reel finishes to her name.
So far, Jandiroba has avoided being finished in her 23-fight career and that probably holds true by the end of tonight’s card. Lemos will do her damndest to be the first to put Jandiroba away though. Few fighters in the 115-pound division hit harder than Lemos and though Jandiroba has been in the octagon with some legit strikers, none of them had Lemos’ KO power.
If this goes to the ground, it’s Jandiroba’s game to lose, though Lemos is dangerous there as well. Jandiroba has so many ways to tie Lemos up, this main event could turn on a dime if Jandiroba can keep the fight in her world.
I don’t see Jandiroba catching a submission early, and I don’t see her outlasting Lemos over the course of a grueling 25 minutes. Lemos stifles Jandiroba’s elite jiu-jitsu for three rounds and finishes her with strikes in Round 4.
Pick: Lemos
Steve Garcia vs. Seung Woo Choi
Most of Steve Garcia’s opponents are quick to try and take him down and for good reason. What “Mean Machine” lacks in technique, he more than makes up for with a rock-hard chin and truly frightening finishing instincts. He ain’t here to for scorecards, folks.
Choi is more fundamentally solid and due for a finish the way he’s performed, but he has to show that he has another gear to shift into when he has the advantage. As it stands, he’s content to let his precision and athleticism get him to the line, which hasn’t always worked out for him especially when it comes to fighters who can take his shots and pay him back with interest.
I’d add that another problem for Choi is that he keeps running into featherweights that are difficult to put away, Garcia perhaps chief among them. Choi can rack up the points all he wants, it’s not going to matter if Garcia catches him in the latter stages of the fight.
The second round typically belongs to Garcia and I don’t see that being any different against Choi. Garcia by knockout.
Pick: Garcia
Kurt Holobaugh vs. Kaynan Kruschewsky
Kurt Holobaugh can beat you on the feet or on the ground, but he’ll probably want to lean more towards the former in this matchup. If the 14-year veteran gets a hankering to put his grappling up against Kaynan Kruschewsky’s, it could lead to calamity.
The best bet for Holobaugh is to keep this one standing. Kruschewsky has plenty of raw strength so he might consider slugging it out with Holobaugh. More likely, once Kruschewsky feels Holobaugh’s pace and pressure, he’ll take this to the ground to slow the action down. From there, it’s on Holobaugh to defend against submissions (he’s only been tapped out once in his career) and work to get the fight back to the feet.
Holobaugh’s lackluster wrestling defense was his downfall in his last fight and could be again if Kruschewsky can comfortably close the distance. Look for Holobaugh to make this fight as uncomfortable as possible for the Brazilian newcomer by putting his gritty striking skills to use early and often.
In a back-and-forth fight, Holobaugh does just enough to earn the decision.
Pick: Holobaugh
Cody Durden vs. Bruno Silva
Were it not for for the fact that he’s fought just three times in the past four years, Bruno “Bulldog” Silva would be a legit dark horse contender for the UFC flyweight title. If he’s to make a run, he’s got plenty of work to do.
Cody Durden is no pushover, but there are plenty of reasons to back Silva in this one. He’s better all around, hits harder, and, most importantly, he’s got slick submission skills. That’s one major vulnerability of Durden, whose three losses inside the octagon have all come by tap-out.
The path to victory for the larger Durden is to come forward and bully Silva, which is easier said than done given that rushing at Bulldog is about as safe as rushing at an actual bulldog. Durden might speed up his demise if he thinks he can just walk Silva down.
Durden’s wrestling and toughness always give him a chance, but I’m liking Silva to sting Durden on the feet and secure a club-and-sub victory.
Pick: Silva
Doo Ho Choi vs. Bill Algeo
Ah yes, the winners of the “we couldn’t beat Kyle Nelson” sweepstakes. Catchy title.
One of these fighters will wash off that Canadian stank and I’m picking Doo Ho Choi. “The Korean Superboy” looked pretty good coming off of a three-plus-year layoff and now that he’s back in the swing of things, I expect him to return to the win column against Bill Algeo.
“Señor Perfecto” is a quality featherweight, one that I’ve often touted as one of the division’s more dangerous matchups. But after four years and 10 UFC fights, it still feels like Algeo is struggling to find his footing with the promotion. The consistency just isn’t there for a fighter as talented as he is.
Were it not for an unfortunate point deduction due to a head butt, Choi would have seen his hand raised in February. He’ll be sharper this time around, reminding us of the babyfaced brawler that made it into the UFC Hall of Fame alongside Cub Swanson.
I’m riding with Choi to get his first win since... 2016! Wow.
Pick: Choi
Jeong Yeong Lee vs. Hyder Amil
As unfortunate as it was to lose the Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park co-main event (condolences to the Iron Turtle Army), I’m happy to see Jeong Yeong Lee and Hyder Amil get the promotion to the main card here. The featherweight division is loaded and these up-and-coming talents deserve a spot along their more experienced counterparts.
These two are both incredibly fit and durable, so expect a three-round battle if neither manages to land a telling blow early. The matchmakers are on point with this fight, a showcase for a couple of prospects that could have a number next to their name someday.
Lee is the trickier fighter from range, so look for him to establish the distance early and poke away at an advancing Amil. He won’t be able to keep Amil out for long though and by the midway point of the first round they’ll be slinging heavy leather in the center of the octagon. I see Amil as having the heavier hands, while Lee has the slight edge in speed. Tough fight to pick.
Leaning towards Amil by decision, just going with a gut feeling.
Pick: Amil
Preliminaries
Brian Kelleher def. Cody Gibson
Miranda Maverick def. Dione Barbosa
Trey Ogden def. Loik Radzhabov