Anthony Richardson's return from injury has the potential to disrupt everything

Following a surprising run to the playoffs that included a first-round blowout of the Cleveland Browns, the Houston Texans went on a spending spree this offseason that elevated their status from upstart to Super Bowl sleeper.

After adding Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon and Danielle Hunter, among other moves, the Texans have a chance to be one of the best teams in the entire NFL if C.J. Stroud continues his trajectory to MVP contender.

So, what does that say about the teams that finished just a game behind Houston in the AFC South last season?

2023 AFC South standings

• Houston Texans (10-7)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
• Indianapolis Colts (9-8)
• Tennessee Titans (6-11)

As good as the Texans were and should continue to be, they didn’t clinch a spot in the 2023 playoffs until the final week of the season. Gaining separation in 2024 could prove to be just as difficult with the return of quarterback Anthony Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts.

Taken immediately after Houston’s Rookie of the Year tandem of Stroud and Will Anderson in the 2023 draft, Richardson went 2-2 through two starts, showing every bit of the potential that made him the fourth overall pick. But even after the Colts lost him for the season — and also played seven games without star running back Jonathan Taylor — they managed to come within a game of winning the South. With an underwhelming and less dynamic Gardner Minshew under center.

If Houston is the best bet to win the division at +100 odds at BetMGM, Indy is the best value at +325, even ahead of the Jaguars at +275. Giving head coach Shane Steichen a full season of Richardson and Taylor could be just enough for the Colts to take the necessary strides to keep up with the rising Texans.

In fact, Tennessee’s +900 odds may be a better bet than Jacksonville, depending on how optimistic people are about their second-year signal caller, Will Levis. Though Derrick Henry is gone, the additions of Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to a team that already had DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks give Levis more than enough firepower to work with. The only other question with Tennessee is whether its defense is good enough to win games, though the addition of L’Jarius Sneed certainly helps.

Indy needs to improve defensively too, but has less work to close the gap on a Houston team that was far better against the run but worse against the pass.

While the Jaguars appear stuck in neutral, at best, there’s reason to believe the Colts and Titans are getting better. Tennessee may not be ready to push Houston at the top, but Indy might be.

A Colts division title changes everything. It means Houston wasn’t as ready to contend as many of us thought it was. Which would further clear the path for Kansas City, Baltimore or another of the AFC’s top teams. It would also mean Richardson is legit, giving Stroud and the Texans some serious competition for years to come in a suddenly stout division.

I’m not ready to project that just yet, as I believe Houston capable of living up to the potential it’s shown to this point. But as Stroud showed last year, a special quarterback can change everything. Richardson has a chance to prove he’s that player for the Colts.