UFC Abu Dhabi predictions
Cory Sandhagen and Umar Nurmagomedov, the floor is yours.
Everything is lining up for one of Saturday’s UFC Abu Dhabi headliners to lay claim to the No. 1 contender spot at 135 pounds. Bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley finally faces off with Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 306 on Sept. 14, and a fresh challenger could be waiting for them before they even step into the octagon.
Will it be the battle-tested Sandhagen? “The Sandman” has already been in one championship fight, an interim title clash with Petr Yan that was one of the best fights of 2021. It was also a loss for Sandhagen, and he’s had to rattle off three straight wins over ranked opponents to stay in title contention. If he beats the heavily favored Nurmagomedov, that surely puts him at the front of the line.
The path looks even clearer for Nurmagomedov, the bearer of a name that now resonates more with the average fan than “Gracie.” Nurmagomedov is the blueprint for the modern MMA fighter, and he’s yet to taste defeat in his 17-fight career. For pundits who have closely followed him, it’s a matter of when for Nurmagomedov, not if.
Stars fill out the rest of the UFC Abu Dhabi main card, including unbeaten Shara Magomedov taking on Michal Oleksiejczuk in the middleweight co-main event, bantamweight contenders Marlon Vera and Deiveson Figueiredo squaring off, fan favorite Tony Ferguson aiming to avoid the longest losing streak in UFC history when he fights Michael Chiesa, strawweight standouts Mackenzie Dern and Loopy Godinez in action, and an absolute banger of an opener between lightweights Joel Alvarez and Elves Brener.
What: UFC Abu Dhabi
Where: Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi
When: Saturday, Aug. 3. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 3 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings)
Cory Sandhagen (4) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (8)
Yeah, I’ve settled at about a 16/10 as far as my level of excitement for this one.
Isn’t this why we watch MMA? To see the best fight the best? For the stars to align to give us a true No. 1 contender in a division? And make no mistake, whoever wins Saturday has every right to hold out for a title shot as soon as one can be booked.
Cory Sandhagen has an airtight case if he becomes the first fighter to hand Umar Nurmagomedov an L. The proud Coloradan has built his reputation on being that dude in the division who will fight anyone, anywhere. Just look at his résumé over the past few years, it’s nothing but the absolute best at 135 pounds, including Marlon Vera, who was tagged for a title shot over Sandhagen due to his history with Sean O’Malley.
Wherever the fight goes, Sandhagen is a handful for Nurmagomedov. He wants to keep the fight standing, but he’s also adept at mixing the martial arts. He’ll chase highlights, but he’s not afraid to grind out a win either. He’s the perfect foil at this stage of Nurmagomedov’s career.
Nurmagomedov made his UFC debut in 2021 with a ton of hype behind him and outside of a few hiccups, he’s more than lived up to it. When it comes to the middle tier of bantamweights, he’s faced some of the best, including Raoni Barcelos and the under-appreciated Sergey Morozov, not to mention dangerous newcomer Bekzat Almakhan. Still, the fact stands: Sandhagen is an enormous step up in competition from anyone Nurmagomedov has previously fought.
Normally, I put a lot of weight on experience and strength of schedule, but Nurmagomedov is a special talent. He’s always been levels above the opponents he’s faced, so he’s well-prepared to take on a contender of Sandhagen’s caliber. This won’t be an easy fight for either man — if one of them somehow dominates the other, just book the title shot as soon as they finish their post-fight interview — so I’m going with Nurmagomedov to win a decision in a Fight of the Year candidate.
Pick: Nurmagomedov
Shara Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
If Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov is the ideal contenders’ fight, this is the ideal replacement co-main event.
With respect to Nick Diaz and Vicente Luque, little was lost when that bout was postponed and replaced by Shara Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk. They might not have the same name value, but if I have to choose between seeing these two wild boys throw down and a 41-year-old Diaz dragging himself to the cage for a paycheck, the choice is easy.
“Shara Bullet” has been inconsistent in his two UFC fights, so the time is now for him to show that he has skills are as impressive as his social media numbers. He’s an awesome striker with some truly scary finishes on his résumé, but if he doesn’t start showing that he can get it done inside the octagon, it won’t be long until fans sour on his act.
Even though a win over Oleksiejczuk won’t put a number next to Magomedov’s name, this is a beatable opponent being served up on a platter. Oleksiejczuk rarely goes to the cards, so the pressure is on Magomedov to match that pace and deliver a finish.
Magomedov by first-round knockout. Don’t make me regret this pick, Shara Bullet!
Pick: Magomedov
Marlon Vera (12) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (T9)
My logic for picking Deiveson Figueiredo here is that the two-time flyweight champion is just ... better? Searing analysis, I know.
With respect to Marlon Vera, it feels like we’ve seen his ceiling. He’s a slow starter, he can finish anywhere, and he’s tough as all hell. Despite being in the cage with a slew of knockout artists, none of them have put a significant dent in Chito’s chin. It’s remarkable.
Figueiredo was widely recognized as one of the hardest hitters in the flyweight division and while the impact of his strikes is understandably dulled 10 pounds up, he still has more than enough pop to earn Vera’s respect. Vera can’t just walk Figueiredo down if he expects to win.
The size difference can’t make up for the skill difference here, because Vera isn’t going to just hoss Figueiredo around. He’ll test Figueiredo’s standup, land a few good shots, and look to power his way to a decision. It’s a strategy that has served him well in his career, but against the speedy “Deus da Guerra,” I can’t see him connecting enough times to take the decision. This is Figgy’s fight to lose.
Pick: Figueiredo
Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa
What’s this? A winnable fight for Tony Ferguson?
Look, I really want to talk myself into an “El Cucuy” comeback here. If we cherry pick the best moments from his recent performances (remember how well he was doing against Michael Chandler before his face was removed from his face?), we can see hints of the guy who once looked unbeatable at 155 pounds. On paper, Michael Chiesa shouldn’t be an impossible opponent for him to beat, especially if the Chiesa that fell so flat against Kevin Holland shows up.
It’s not like Chiesa is a spring chicken either, having turned 36 this year, only four years younger than Ferguson. His performance against Holland might have been a sign that his best days are truly behind him.
All that said, Chiesa has a clear path to victory with his grappling and easy to picture Ferguson avoiding being wrestled into oblivion. I close my eyes to envision how this fight goes and all I see is Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush ragdolling Ferguson for 15 minutes. Chiesa isn’t as good as either of those guys, but he doesn’t need to be.
This is MMA, so Ferguson pulling a rabbit out of a hat would be a delight, but I vowed a long time ago to stop picking Ferguson to win fights and I see no reason to veer from that strategy.
Chiesa by decision.
Pick: Chiesa
Mackenzie Dern (8) vs. Loopy Godinez (10)
The strawweight division is fun!
Look, I could not care less at this point whether or not Mackenzie Dern ever “wins the big one” or whatever narrative we’re imposing on her fights these days. She always puts on a show, even if it’s at her own expense, and at this point in her career that’s all you can ask for. Maybe she fights for a title someday. Maybe she doesn’t. ‘Tis of no concern to me.
I feel much the same about Loopy Godinez, an absolute maniac who would fight every week if medically permitted to do so. Godinez is going to see red as soon as that bell rings. Don’t be surprised if she tackles Dern right out of the gate and dares the jiu-jitsu queen to tap her out. I mean, she probably can, but I guarantee you Godinez doesn’t give a hoot.
Dern’s limitations are well-documented. She struggles to find another gear of offense even when she has a dominant position, and on the feet she remains a hard puncher with limited setups. It’s entirely possible that Godinez exploits these weaknesses and cruises to a decision.
I still think Dern is below the elite (her past four losses are to fighters who have competed in title fights, and Marina Rodriguez, a woman who would have were it not for bad timing), but a notch above the next tier of fighters, which includes Godinez. Dern holds onto her spot here, catching Godinez with a submission in the second or third round.
Pick: Dern
Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener
Elves Brener is a premier agent of chaos and I like his chances to score the upset against Joel Alvarez.
If this goes to the ground, the wiry Alvarez presents all kinds of problems for Brener and it will likely be a matter of time before Alvarez adds to his impressive submission tally. It’s imperative that Brener keep this on the feet if he’s to work his unique brand of madness. Brener is a serious submission threat in his own right, but the size difference will be too much for him if this turns into a strict grappling contest.
Look for Brener to use his grappling defensively to stifle Alvarez’s offense and tire him out, before letting his hands go after a tense opening minutes. Alvarez will do his best to return fire before eventually succumbing to a power punch on the money.
Brener by first-round knockout.
Pick: Brener
Preliminaries
Azamat Murzakanov (15) def. Alonzo Menifield
Kaue Fernandes def. Mohammad Yahya
Shamil Gaziev def. Don’Tale Mayes
Jordan Vucenic def. Guram Kutateladze
Viktoriia Dudakova def. Sam Hughes