2024 Paris Olympics men's basketball semifinal picks: Can Nikola Jokic spoil Team USA's pursuit of gold?

The Paris Olympics men’s basketball tournament is down to its final four teams Thursday, with France, Germany, Serbia and the U.S. all looking to punch their tickets to the final for a chance to play for gold.

On the heels of a 35-point win over Brazil, Team USA remains a massive favorite to win it all at -1000 at BetMGM, including -1600 moneyline odds against Serbia, but they have to stay focused against Nikola Jokic and company to deliver on that promise.

On the other side of the bracket, France and Germany will meet in what projects to be a much tighter semifinal. But France will have to be much better than it was in a 14-point group phase loss to Germany. Below are my predictions and best bets for each matchup.

France (+175) vs. Germany (-225; -5.5) (O/U 156.6)

Germany has been maybe the most consistent team this tournament next to the U.S., so picking them to beat a France team they bested just a week ago would seem easy. What can’t be dismissed, however, is the home support France will have as they push closer to a medal. And, of course, the potential for them to finally play up to their potential, which we may have gotten a taste of in their quarterfinal win over Canada.

I suspect Rudy Gobert will once again be a limited part of France’s game-plan, which should speed up the pace and give the team more defensive versatility. Because of that, I’m expecting a closer game. After the team’s minutes leader, Nicolas Batum, went scoreless with just one field goal attempt in 34 minutes against Canada, I’m expecting him to bounce back with a few spot-up threes and eclipse his over with a total closer to the eight points he scored the first meeting.

Prediction: Germany 82 – France 78

Best bet: Nicolas Batum Over 6.5 points

USA (-1600) vs. Serbia (+825; +15.5) (O/U 188.5)

So, let me get this straight. Team USA has played Serbia twice since Olympic exhibitions, winning those games by 26 points apiece — including a group stage win in Paris — and I’m expected to believe Serbia can keep a third meeting within 16 points? Immediately after the U.S. just played its most dominant game to date? Yeah, na, I’m good.

Nikola Jokic is still every bit as good as we remember him being fresh off a third straight NBA MVP award, but his supporting cast simply isn’t up to the task. The U.S. will eclipse 100 points for a fifth straight game, and Serbia won’t come close to matching them. For some extra action, though, Kevin Durant over 13.5 points feels like a good bet. He’s averaging 15 in Paris and couldn’t miss en route to 23 points the first meeting against Serbia.

Prediction: U.S. 104 – Serbia 86

Best bet: U.S. -15.5

Favorite player prop: Kevin Durant Over 13.5 points