NFL bettors are overthinking Defensive Player of the Year when the odds make it so easy to pick a winner

Hey, you, NFL bettor. Stop overthinking those odds for 2024 Defensive Player of the Year. Trying to find a sleeper guaranteed to make you and only you a boatload of money while the rest of us are left wondering why we hadn’t considered what suddenly seems like an obvious pick.

Let me tell you right now before you sprinkle an unnecessary chunk of your bankroll on Brian Burns at +6000, hoping to flip $60 into $3,600.

It ain’t happening.

Why? Because that’s what history tells us. Oddsmakers don’t always get it right when projecting outcomes, which is the fun in gambling. But they have been fairly solid when it comes to handicapping the DPOY. So, just stick to the favorites on this one.

In seven of 10 years since the 2014 season, the eventual DPOY had top-three odds to win the award entering the season, according to SportsOddsHistory, and top-five odds in nine of 10 years. The only outlier was the rare cornerback winner, Stephon Gilmore, in 2019.

Otherwise, the winners have been among the crop of players people thought it might be. For 2024, that means favorites Micah Parsons (+550), T.J. Watt (+650) and reigning DPOY Myles Garrett (+650) should be receiving the bulk of consideration.

So far, that hasn’t exactly been the case. Though Watt is the biggest liability to win the award at BetMGM, leading all players in tickets (17.6%) and money wagered (22.4%), bettors are otherwise taking a gamble on longer candidates.

Maxx Crosby at +900 is the third-most ticketed player with the second most money wagered, and Chris Jones at +2500 has the third-most money wagered. Aidan Hutchinson at +1500 is the second-most ticketed player with the fourth-most money wagered.

Bettors are too easily dismissing Parsons and Garrett in all this, and it’ll probably be a mistake.

Now, it is worth noting the outright favorite has only won twice in the last 10 years, so maybe that’s why Parsons isn’t attracting more action. But that doesn’t explain why Garrett accounts for just 3.8% of tickets and 3.1% of handle.

I do agree with the public on Watt, though. A close second to Garrett last season after racking up a league-leading 19 sacks, it’ll be difficult for voters to pass on him if he puts up another monster season like that. For someone who’s averaged more than a sack per game since his second year in the NFL, I’d say it’s more likely he does than not.