Paul Skenes' dip from great to merely good tanked his Cy Young chances and reopened the rookie race

If you would have told me a month ago as the MLB season went into its All-Star break that anyone other than Paul Skenes would have a chance at winning the NL Rookie of the Year award, I would have asked what kind of drugs you were on.

Skenes was rolling in a way we’ve seen few rookies roll. He kept that hot hand as the starter in the All-Star game. His -1200 odds at BetMGM told the story of what was happening. It was his award to lose.

Fast forward to today, just five starts later, and Skenes is not nearly the lock he was even just a week ago at -1400. Though still the favorite, he’s down to -200 for the award. And Jackson Merrill is creeping up behind him at +130.

What in the world happened?

Odds to win NL Rookie of the Year at #BetMGM

Last week
Paul Skenes -1400
Jackson Merrill +500

Now
Paul Skenes -200
Jackson Merrill +130

28% of money (most) is on Skenes to win. pic.twitter.com/onrMAZTAq3

— John Ewing (@johnewing) August 19, 2024

It’s a fair question considering Skenes is still 7-2 with a 2.30 ERA and 11.11 K/9 rate.

Credit is certainly due to Merrill, who remains the only player even close to Skenes thanks to his impact on the surging San Diego Padres. But the answer is mostly just Skenes falling from great to good.

In five games since the break, he suffered the first losses of his career, going 1-2 with a 3.13 ERA while the Padres went 2-3 in his starts. His strikeout rate dropped too, as he recorded fewer than seven strikeouts in three of those games after having just one such game in his first 11 starts.

And yet, notice how quality those numbers still are. But compared to his 6-0 record and 1.90 ERA at the break… well, they don’t compare. So now we have an ROY race that could potentially go down to the final month of the season. And an NL Cy Young race that’s probably safe to rule him out of.

Chris Sale's odds to win NL Cy Young at #BetMGM

-105: Last week

-350: Now

Chris Sale leads the NL in wins, ERA, and Ks. pic.twitter.com/8DsGS7ORHP

— John Ewing (@johnewing) August 19, 2024

I never gave Skenes much of a chance to win the Cy Young, writing at the break that his late arrival to the majors set him too far back in that competition. But oddsmakers did. Less than two weeks ago, BetMGM had his +185 odds right behind leader Chris Sale at +115.

Today, Sale’s odds are all the way down to -350 while Skenes has moved up to +1500, a distant third behind Zack Wheeler at +300. He’s effectively out of it, which is wild to see considering he’s given up more than two runs just once in his last 11 starts.

But the Cy Young race is mostly about how good Sale has been. He was the leader at the All-Star break and he’s been lights out since. Skenes is still in the driver’s seat of the Rookie of the Year race. If he wants to stay there, he might not need to be as great as he was, but he can’t afford any further significant dips in his production.