NFL preseason unders are cashing at an unreal rate but the new kickoff rules make that unlikely to continue in Week 1
If you’re among the true degenerates bold enough to bet on exhibition football, you’ve probably been doing alright for yourself this summer. A recent trend of preseason football is for games to hit the under on their totals, and that’s never been truer than in 2024.
According to Action Network’s Evan Abrams, preseason unders are off to their best two-week start in the last 20 years, going 26-7 this preseason.
With one week left before the games start to count, you can probably guess where bettors will be putting their money the most.
NFL preseason unders are 26-7 through two weeks
It's the best start for preseason unders in the last 20 years
(via @EvanHAbrams | @Bet_Labs) pic.twitter.com/oISqJT3re3
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) August 19, 2024
Once the preseason is over, though, I would suggest everyone cool it on under wagers. There’s a good chance this trend dies with the regular season.
As we’re all aware, the NFL implemented new kickoff rules this year, and though scoring is down in the preseason, the new kickoffs have actually accomplished their intended goal of raising the rate of returns, which only increases the chance of big plays.
Through two weeks, the rate of returns is 78%, which is up over 63% through this point last year and a massive increase over the 22% rate of the 2023 regular season. Furthermore, the average starting position of drives after kickoffs is the 28.3-yard line, about four yards better than it was in 2023.
According to the NFL, the kickoff return rate through 2 preseason games is at 78%. Last year, it was 22%.
The average starting field position has been just past the 28-yard line. In '23, it was just shy of the 24-yard line.
It's early, but the kickoff rule has made an impact.
— Tashan Reed (@tashanreed) August 19, 2024
With so many backups taking the field and unpolished players fighting for jobs, offenses have been unable to take advantage of the better starting position in the preseason. Don’t expect that to be the case in the regular season.
Even if teams decide to concede more touchbacks rather than give up returns, as some people expect they might, the new rules put the ball at the 30-yard line rather than the old touchback at the 25. It’s still a boost to offenses.
It’s worth waiting to see if oddsmakers account for this with inflated lines. But it’s absolutely something I’d be paying attention to before continuing to hammer unders in the regular season.