UFC 306 roundtable: Is the Sean O’Malley era about to come to an abrupt end?

Sean O’Malley has already silenced plenty of doubters on his rise to the top. Can he do it one more time against arguably the biggest challenge of his career?

The main event of UFC 306 sees O’Malley defend his bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili, a relentless grinder who has defeated 10 straight opponents. Dvalishvili’s grappling expertise is expected to be O’Malley’s kryptonite and all the pressure is on the colorful champion to prove once again that his game is worthy of the fame.

MMA Fighting’s Alexander K. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew make their best guess as to where O’Malley will be—and where his career might be headed—come Sunday morning, plus we predict whether the Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko will reach a satisfying conclusion, and how the UFC plans to deliver in its heavily hyped debut at Sphere in Las Vegas.

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1. Fill in the blank: After UFC 306, Sean O’Malley is ______

Meshew: The biggest active star in the UFC.

Coming off Contender Series, O’Malley had all the promise in the world and the potential to be “the next Conor McGregor” but the question was would he get there? McGregor was an exceptional talent but he also ran hotter than the Sun for several years, creating a perfect storm of stardom. Could O’Malley do the same? Well, thus far, he has.

Though O’Malley had a rocky road at points, over the past few years, the man has been pitching straight gas. Beating Petr Yan as a big underdog, upsetting Aljamain Sterling to claim the belt, and then dog-walking rival Chito Vera were all big wins, but beating the guy many believe to be the best bantamweight on Earth, and doing it at “the greatest live sporting event of all time”? That’s how you cross over into the mainstream.

And I think he’s going to do it. Don’t get me wrong, if Merab comes in and Merabs him, I won’t be shocked, but the more I’ve thought about this fight, the more I think O’Malley is prepared for it. Merab is imminently hittable and that’s a bad start fighting O’Malley, plus O’Malley is extremely good at controlling range. I think Merab is going to have a lot of difficulty scoring takedowns and thus be stranded on the feet getting plunked up for a lot of the fight, until O’Malley finds the big KO shot, and then the “Suga” Show really begins.

Heck: Calling out the Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway winner.

Much like Mr. No Grey Area just laid out, the promotional push that this event has received — and will get even more during fight week — is not something other cards get. In fact, this has gotten more attention from the UFC than UFC 300, and it’s not all that close. O’Malley is the face of the card even though it’s a “love letter” to Mexican combat sports, and that seemed to be the plan from jump street.

I think O’Malley matches up really well with Dvalishvili, and there’s a vast difference between a fighter who is talking crap and a fighter who is so confident that they know something we don’t. “Suga” has that aura to him, while Dvalishvili, as good as he is, has put a whole lot of extra pressure on himself.

If O’Malley runs through Dvalishvili, what he says on that microphone after that moment becomes the story of the weekend. He called for Topuria after his win over Marlon Vera, there’s no doubt he’s going call for it again — along with Holloway for good measure — should he get his hand raised to close the show.

Lee: Humbled.

O’Malley earned his stripes the hard way, despite what his detractors might say. He got the Snoop Dogg rub on Contender Series and that built up plenty of hype, but he still had to deliver the goods in the octagon and he did that with flying colors, dazzling fans with his exciting striking style before picking up quality wins over Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling to prove he’s the real deal.

He deserves to be at the top, which is going to make the fall hurt that much more.

On paper, Dvalishvili is O’Malley’s worst nightmare. A non-stop cardio machine with great wrestling and zero Fs to give, he could potentially smash O’Malley in the first round or just put him through hell for 25 minutes. Sure, O’Malley could lay him out with one good shot, but imagine how badly the champion’s confidence will be shaken if he connects early and Dvalishvili just shrugs it off. There are levels to this and it’s possible that Dvalishvili is one above everyone else at 135 pounds, including O’Malley.

The brash O’Malley likes to boast that he’s undefeated, shrugging off a loss to Chito Vera that was in part due to injury and one he later avenged convincingly at UFC 299. He’ll be considerably less brash after Dvalishvili is through with him.

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2. Will Alexa Grasso or Valentina Shevchenko definitively shut the door on their rivalry?

Heck: Nah, probably not.

I had Shevchenko winning the second fight, and she has a far better chance than the MMA community seems to be giving her to win the trilogy. If she wins, there’s zero chance we don’t see it again. It may not be next, but we’ll certainly see it one more time.

If Grasso wins, but doesn’t do it in one-sided fashion, I still think there could be room for one more. Even if she does, I wouldn’t rule it out completely. Heck (that’s me), if Max Holloway wins the featherweight title, he could find himself in a fourth fight with Alexander Volkanovski.

Some rivalries just never have a full-on expiration date. This seems to be one of those.

Lee: First of all, TUF NEVER DIE, obviously.

Second, this rivalry is ready to come to an end, one way or the other.

As thrilling as the first two contests have been, Saturday’s co-main event winner should be able to put a stamp on this trilogy barring the competitors going haywire. If Grasso wins, she will hold a comfortable 2-0-1 lead over Shevchenko; if Shevchenko wins, she can make the case that she has two wins in the series given the controversial draw in their second fight. I’d love to see another rematch, but I also want a lineup of worthy contenders get their day in court.

Consider also that the losing fighter has options.

Grasso, five years Shevchenko’s junior, still has plenty of big fights ahead of her in the 125-pound division and should be remain in title contention for years to come. It’s possible she could even find a greater rival than Shevchenko. Should Shevchenko lose, a return to bantamweight seems like the obvious move, especially given that she’d be favored over almost any opponent in that weight class.

All roads have led to Grasso vs. Shevchenko 3 delivering the goods in terms of drama, emotion, skill, and, most importantly, a definitive winner at last.

Meshew: Look, we all know what happened to me the first time these two fought. It wasn’t good.

So when I say what I’m about to, you know that I mean it from the bottom of my heart: Grasso already won this rivalry.

In the first fight, Shevchenko was well on her way to winning an uninspiring decision when Grasso caught her slipping and finished it with the Submission of the Year. Then in the rematch, Grasso should have won the fight, but then somehow stole a draw (the judging was almost transparently dodgy). It wasn’t as definitive as the first time, but through almost 45 minutes of fighting, Grasso has been the better fighter.

Now, heading into their trilogy, Grasso is still in the prime of her career and Shevchenko is 36 and clearly beyond her best days. She’s good enough to not get blown out, but all signs point to Grasso winning again, which we should all be happy about. Flyweight is the best division in women’s MMA and for the past 18 months it has been held up by this one matchup, while other contenders, like Manon Fiorot, emerged.

Grasso closes the door and it’s on to new business.

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3. What do you hope to see with the Sphere production?

Meshew: The thing about the UFC is, it’s creatively bankrupt. The product has been functionally the same, production-wise, for nearly a decade. There might be one or two new bells or whistles every once in awhile (or when the UFC changes broadcast partners) but it’s all the same. Remember when Dana White promised “Fight Island” would be this insanely cool thing and then he just did UFC APEX shows in Abu Dhabi? That’s what I’m talking about.

So given that, my expectations for Noche UFC 2.0 aren’t high. I’m half-expecting the big reveal to simply be Gladiator Man in Sphere. But I hope I’m wrong because this is an opportunity for them to do something cool. Like what? I have no idea. I’ve been promised the greatest sporting event of all time. Dazzle me. Make me say, “I didn’t even know that was possible.”

Heck: Sorry, Jed, but consider yourself pre-dazzled.

There’s no f’ing way this doesn’t deliver in the, “Holy shit, that’s crazy” department. UFC 300 was a grand slam, and the MMA media knew it would be, which is why we all put it over as the best card on paper, while the promotion put forth one hell of an effort on fight week and on fight night to make it feel like it was this incredible, can’t-miss event. And boy, was it.

As impressive as all that was, it pales in comparison to what they’ve been trying to do with this card. Sure, the ticket prices are criminal, but this is also about the televised live sports-watching experience. I just don’t see a way that we’re looking at this event and thinking, “Eh, this is just OK.” I think this is going to be freaking cool as hell, and being the production geek that I am, I’m so intrigued about how this is going to look.

There’s always a “but” though, right? Here’s mine. Much like UFC 300, we missed it immediately. Once the awful, no-effort APEX cards, and business-as-usual approach returned, we knew it was a short shelf life of fun and extra effort. I think we’re going to be feeling the hangover from that aspect for quite some time after UFC 306, no matter how good some of the fights are for the rest of 2024.

Lee: As always, leave it to me to be planted firmly on the fence with the most levelheaded take of all.

For those lucky enough to be in attendance, it should be a life-changing experience; for those of us watching at home, expect a standard UFC show with a few memorable visual tricks and plenty of shiny things to gawk at. So it is both true and not true that this will be the greatest sports spectacle of all time. It is Schrodinger’s Sphere.

Even if you consider Sphere to be one big, expensive gimmick, it feels like it’s a gimmick everyone should check out once as the people behind the scenes have produced some incredible optical illusions that simply cannot be replicated by any other venue. Mileage may vary on how much these tricks will actually enhance the fight night experience, but it can’t be worse than sitting in the nosebleeds and staring at a screen for most of the night. The in-venue atmosphere promises to be uniquely immersive.

I just have no clue how this will translate through television. Yes, clips from the Sphere often catch the eye when they make the rounds on social media, but personally, I’ve never watched one without thinking, “Boy, I bet that looks really cool if you’re actually there.” This is especially true when it comes to the fights themselves, which should feature bog-standard UFC production (seriously, would you want them to be switching to random shots of Sphere images in the middle of a fight?).

As a proud house mouse, you’ll rarely hear me complain about not going to a live event. But I can’t lie, whatever they show of the Sphere will likely leave me wanting more and experiencing a rare case of FOMMMA (Fear of Missing Mixed Martial Arts).