49ers vs. Cardinals: 5 keys to downing Arizona amid very hot day

SANTA CLARA – Cheers and euphoria filled the air inside the 49ers’ cramped locker room inside FedEx Field on New Year’s Eve.

The Niners had just clinched the NFC playoffs’ No. 1 seed, at first doing their part in beating the Washington Commanders. Then they huddled around small televisions and phones, merrily watching the Arizona Cardinals rally for a last-minute win in Philadelphia, thus blocking the Eagles from that top seed.

“That means the world. So shout out to the Cardinals, man, appreciate you guys,” running back Christian McCaffrey said at his locker that late afternoon.

“The Cardinals helped us out a lot this year,” defensive end Nick Bosa then added.

Come Sunday at Levi’s Stadium, the 49ers (2-2) won’t be glad-handing the Cardinals (1-3). They’ll be resuming an NFC West rivalry that’s featured hard hits and hurt feelings in past years. That’s not to say the 49ers totally despise their incoming guests (and 2023 heroes).

“I’m a huge fan of their head coach (Arizona’s Jonathan Gannon) and the system he built last year,” tight end George Kittle said. “You could tell by the end of the year they all bought into his system the way they were playing, and they were significantly better at the end of the year than they were at the start. They’ve taken steps to being a good team.”

The 49ers beat the Cardinals 35-16 and 45-29 last year to sweep the season series a second straight season. Here are five ways to win Sunday in what’s forecast as the hottest game ever at Levi’s Stadium:

1. MESSAGE RECEIVED

Pro tip: Beware of Marvin Harrison Jr. on the opening drive. Each of the Cardinals’ past three games have seen this dynamic rookie catch a touchdown pass from Kyler Murray on their opening drive (23 yards, 10 yards, 2 yards).

Harrison had just a 4-yard catch on three targets in his Week 1 debut, but he’s caught four, five, and five passes in the ensuing games, highlighted by a 130-yard outburst in Week 2 with his 23- and 60-yard touchdown catches in a 41-10 rout of the Rams.

After the 49ers’ 30-13 win Sunday over New England, cornerback Deommodore Lenoir was already looking forward to his first encounter with Harrison, the No. 4 overall draft pick.  “I’ve been waiting on this one. The new guy. I like him,” Lenoir said.

Stanford product Michael Wilson, a third-round pick last year, torched the 49ers with two touchdowns and seven catches on seven targets (76 yards) in last October’s visit to Levi’s Stadium. Wilson, by the way, scored on the Cardinals’ opening drive this season on a 5-yard catch. Murray will have another target, too, in tight end Trey McBride, who’s expected to return from a concussion.

2. MURRAY’S PROGRESS

The 49ers’ historic troubles with mobile quarterbacks will be tested for the first time this season, all due respect to Minnesota’s Sam Darnold (five carries, 32 yards) in Week 2. With Fred Warner (ankle) not at full strength, the 49ers’ entire defense must be ready to track Murray’s whereabouts.

Murray, two years removed from a torn ACL, isn’t running as wild as usual. He is “playing within the confines of the offense” and looking “much more comfortable” in the pocket, coach Kyle Shanahan said.

Murray’s 16 carries are two less than Brock Purdy’s, and the Cardinals’ sixth-year quarterback ran only once in last Sunday’s loss to Washington. He is completing a career-best 69.4% and has thrown just one interception in 108 attempts, with six touchdown strikes. His 104.6 passer rating is a jump from his 92.7 career average. “He definitely looks more comfortable, going though more of his reads as opposed to looking to run,” Nick Bosa said.

Bosa, drafted No. 2 overall behind Murray in 2019, has two sacks in their five meetings; Murray did not play in the Cardinals’ past three games at Levi’s Stadium due to his health.

3. RUNNING FEUD

With so much attention on each team’s aerial shows, don’t overlook the impact of punishing, physical runners in the 49ers’ Jordan Mason and the Cardinals’ James Conner.

Conner got into a postgame scuffle last year with safety Talanoa Hufanga, who Thursday dismissed it as the sport’s competitive nature. “He’s a big bruiser, a big back, who can get downhill quick,” Hufanga said. “Once he gets to that second level, he’s making guys miss. You have to get him on the ground. It’s going to be a heck of a game.”

A year after Christian McCaffrey scored four touchdowns on the Cardinals, Mason has produced a rushing touchdown in three of his four starts in place of McCaffrey. Conner accounts for all three of Arizona’s rushing touchdowns this season.

Mason did not start last game, but rather Deebo Samuel did for the first of only two carries. Samuel also had three receptions (58 yards) and twice lined up as a kick returner, to which he said: “Any way you can get the ball in my hands, I’m pretty cool with.” The 49ers have yet to fully entrust Isaac Guerendo (or Patrick Taylor Jr.) as a potential No. 2, change-of-pace rusher.

4. BEWARE OF BUDDA

Six-time Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker is making his 100th career start and is obviously a must-find defender for Brock Purdy, who’s made 25 career starts. “Shout out Brock Purdy: Hopefully you throw it to me a couple of times,” Baker told Arizona reporters.

Kittle is the one who’s had epic duels with him over the years. “What separates Budda is he can decipher a play really quickly and he never slows down,” Kittle said. “He is, in the most complimentary way, the Energizer Bunny on the football field.

“He will sprint, change direction three different times, not slow down, and then tackle the ball carrier three yards in the backfield. It’s just really incredible.”

Baker did not play when the Cardinals lost their last two visits to Levi’s Stadium. He’s averaged 11 tackles per game since 2018 when facing the 49ers, with two interceptions, 1.5 sacks and multiple crippling hits.

5. (Tie) TAKE TWO STEPS

Hiccups are expected in the regular season’s first block (to borrow the 49ers’ training camp terminology). Better production and precision are needed from two key aspects in the next four-game block (vs. Arizona, at Seattle, vs. Kansas City, vs. Dallas):

5a. Brandon Aiyuk: He and Samuel have yet to catch a touchdown pass, and although they work in concert with each other in the open field, it’s Aiyuk who is drawing increased scrutiny with every game under 50 yards receiving. “You’ll see the stats come,” general manager John Lynch said on KNBR 680-AM.

With 13 catches for 167 yards, Aiyuk said: That’s just the receiver position: sometimes it comes your way, sometimes it doesn’t. But you just have to keep working and get some momentum so it can start going your way.”

5b. Special teams: The only NFC player-of-the-week award won by the 49ers this season was, get this, from their special teams unit, specifically Jake Moody for his six-of-six field-goal kicks in the opener. Since then, Sundays have been marked with special teams disasters: punt blocked in Minnesota; fake punt ignites Los Angeles’ comeback and a late-game punt return seals the 49ers’ fate; and, Guerendo fumbles away Sunday’s second-half kickoff return to lead to the Patriots’ only touchdown.

At some point, the 49ers need to spring Trent Taylor off the practice squad as a potential return specialist and special teams spark. That could be influenced by the health of Jacob Cowing (shoulder).