NFL straight-up picks, Week 9: Backing a furious Bears team and 2024's worst game (?)

Well, that was a rough week to be chalky. Week 8 delivered a handful of upsets, some of which were hilarious enough to justify whatever lost money followed them — including Aaron Rodgers’s schadenfreude and whatever the hell the Chicago Bears did in the fourth quarter of their game in Washington.

Week 9 might be similarly tricky. The season’s halfway point is marked by a bunch of road teams who look better than their opponent on paper but who you don’t quite trust. Will the Houston Texans take care of business against a New York Jets team who absolutely needs a win? Will the Washington Commanders have a let-down game in a divisional showdown in New York? What the hell is Sunday’s New England Patriots-Tennessee Titans matchup going to be, aside from Red Zone’s least thrown-to game?

Well, let’s take a look and pick some winners.

I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. In fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph and Meghan Hall, who is off this week). Here are our Week 9 picks:

All odds via BetMGM

and:

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Let’s break down three games based on what I do and don’t like.

Easiest game to pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-7) over the Las Vegas Raiders

Why I like this pick:

Cincinnati is approaching must-win status. After falling apart in Week 8, the Raiders provide a vital get-right opportunity. The Bengals’ biggest weakness is a suddenly depressing defense. Fortunately for them, Las Vegas arrives with Gardner Minshew and the league’s 32nd-ranked offense.

Why I don’t like this pick:

The Raiders have engineered an undermanned, ultimately futile in-season rally before under head coach Antonio Pierce. Granted, the enthusiasm and joy that comes with no longer having to play for Josh McDaniels is no longer in play, but still.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 6-2 (.750)

Hardest favorite to back: Tennessee Titans (-3) over the New England Patriots

Why I like this pick:

New England came to play against the Jets, because this is a franchise that hates the Jets. It is also a franchise ambivalent to the Titans. Drake Maye is working through the concussion protocol and Jacoby Brissett has been one of the few quarterbacks in the NFL less efficient than Will Levis. The Patriots’ depleted offense leans heavily on the run, where the Titans boast a top 10 defense.

Why I don’t like this pick:

The Pats are trending slightly upward. From a rebuild standpoint, there’s more value to Tennessee in losing this game (and floating to the top of next year’s draft to find a quarterback) than winning it. If Drake Maye does play, he’ll be the game’s best QB even if he’s only 85 percent.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 4-4 (.500)

Upset pick of the week: Chicago Bears (+1.5) over the Arizona Cardinals

The Bears closed last week as underdogs, which kept this section alive. They did not close out a damn thing on the Commanders’ Hail Mary, however, which is why I’m now batting .250 when it comes to picking dogs.

And yet, here I am once more, screaming into the void and expecting to hear something beyond my own echo.

Arizona is 3-1 when James Conner averages more than 3.5 yards per carry. Chicago is allowing 4.7 yards per rush this season and ranks only 17th in EPA allowed on rushing plays.

Uh… (points to the general vicinity of Week 8).

Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 2-6 (.250)