College Football Playoff Update: CFP Projections, Week 13 NCAAF Best Bets, and More
As part of the work I do at Fantasy Life, I run a college football betting model that predicts weekly spreads and scores, while also power ranking all 134 FBS teams and projecting the college football playoff bracket. What you’ll find below is a weekly update on the best of this week’s content. I hope you find it helpful!
Projected College Football Playoff Rankings
There is a major difference between my projected bracket and the official one put out by the College Football Playoff selection committee — they aren’t projecting out for strength of schedule and remaining opponents; I am. So while our brackets may look a little different now, I’m hoping my version will be what it looks like when the playoffs arrive.
My Top Four Teams (Receiving Byes)
- Oregon
- Texas
- Miami
- Colorado
First Round Games
No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 12 Boise State
No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 11 Indiana
No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 10 Ole Miss
No. 8 Penn St. vs. No. 9 Notre Dame
The Four Left Outside Looking In
Tennessee, Texas A&M, South Carolina, BYU
My Top 5 RB Prospects
You can read the full breakdown on Fantasy Life, but here’s a look at where I have the top college RBs ranked as Draft season creeps up on us.
- Ashton Jeanty | Boise State | 5’8/217
- Kaleb Johnson | Iowa | 6’0/225
- Omarion Hampton | North Carolina | 5’11/220
- Quinshon Judkins | Ohio State | 5’11/219
- Jonah Coleman | Washington | 5’9/225
The biggest riser in this class is Iowa’s Johnson, who incredibly didn’t even come into the campaign as the Hawkeyes’ designated RB1. But Johnson seized control of that gig early, and has given the Hawkeyes an offensive identity. He runs hard, he has one-cut suddenness, and he boasts very good feet in general for a big back. Johnson’s 5.1 yards per carry after contact trails on Jeanty (6.03) in the FBS.
Kennesaw State vs. Florida International — One of My 10 Best Bets This Weekend
It has been a weird inaugural FBS season for Kennesaw State. The Owls started 0-6. Then, Kennesaw pulled one of the season’s most shocking upsets, beating Liberty as 27.5-point underdogs. Two weeks later, Kennesaw forced double overtime at UTEP before falling.
The next day, Kennesaw’s administration announced HC Brian Bohannon had stepped down. Hours later, Bohannon tweeted that he hadn’t resigned, but rather been fired. Five contributors left the team and entered the portal. The fanbase was upset.
In its first game after that, a home game against 7-2 Sam Houston last week, Bohannon was amongst a throng of fans that high-fived players on their way into the stadium. Kennesaw gave Sam Houston everything it could handle, but eventually lost its second-straight game in overtime (23-17).
For all the weirdness around the program, for all the controversy surrounding the Bohannon decision, and through the player defections, one thing is abundantly clear about Kennesaw: The team is still playing hard, and, over the past month, has played easily its best ball of the season.
This week, Kennesaw hosts 3-7 FIU. Kennesaw has a heavily run-slanted offense. FIU has a very good pass defense, but a shoddy run defense (No. 107 EPA/run). We can see Kennesaw grinding out yards in this matchup. On the other side of the ball, Kennesaw’s No. 116 SP+ defense should battle FIU’s No. 115 SP+ offense to a draw.
FIU’s offensive issues are a big reason that most of its games against similarly-talented programs end close. In FIU’s last six games, five have been decided by single digits. We see another close game coming here, and are happy to grab the points with the home ‘dog.
- The model says: FIU -3.1
- Thor’s Bet: Kennesaw State +9.5
My Top 25
Check out the full top 25 with my college football power rankings.
| Rank | Team | Conf | Proj Wins | Power Rating | SOS Rank |
| 1 | Ohio St. | B1G | 10.9 | 50.3 | 22 |
| 2 | Texas | SEC | 10.7 | 49.7 | 16 |
| 3 | Oregon | B1G | 12.0 | 49.4 | 45 |
| 4 | Georgia | SEC | 10.0 | 48.8 | 4 |
| 5 | Alabama | SEC | 9.8 | 47.4 | 8 |
| 6 | Ole Miss | SEC | 9.8 | 47.1 | 24 |
| 7 | Notre Dame | IND | 10.6 | 45.9 | 49 |
| 8 | Penn St. | B1G | 10.8 | 45.2 | 38 |
| 9 | Tennessee | SEC | 9.8 | 44.1 | 47 |
| 10 | Indiana | B1G | 11.2 | 43.9 | 66 |
| 11 | Miami (FL) | ACC | 10.9 | 43.8 | 65 |
| 12 | Texas A&M | SEC | 8.9 | 42.0 | 21 |
| 13 | South Carolina | SEC | 8.5 | 40.3 | 15 |
| 14 | Clemson | ACC | 9.6 | 40.0 | 57 |
| 15 | SMU | ACC | 10.6 | 39.4 | 68 |
| 16 | LSU | SEC | 7.6 | 39.1 | 9 |
| 17 | Iowa | B1G | 7.6 | 38.4 | 34 |
| 18 | USC | B1G | 6.2 | 37.8 | 13 |
| 19 | Colorado | B12 | 9.4 | 37.5 | 35 |
| 20 | Boise St. | MWC | 11.0 | 37.3 | 85 |
| 21 | Florida | SEC | 6.0 | 37.2 | 3 |
| 22 | Auburn | SEC | 4.5 | 37.1 | 11 |
| 23 | Iowa St. | B12 | 9.1 | 37.0 | 40 |
| 24 | Kansas St. | B12 | 8.3 | 36.9 | 36 |
| 25 | Louisville | ACC | 7.3 | 36.6 | 37 |