Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura prediction, pick: How likely is UFC 310 headliner upset?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 310 main event between flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja and promotional newcomer Kai Asakura.

Alexandre Pantoja preview

Staple info:

• Record: 28-5 MMA, 12-3 UFC
• Height: 5’5″ Age: 34 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 68″
• Last fight: Decision win over Steve Erceg (May 4, 2024)
• Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ UFC flyweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Amateur muay Thai accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 8 KO victories
+ 10 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Counters well in combination
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Solid clinch fighter
^ Good knees and strikes off the breaks
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Slick submissions, good ground-and-pound

Kai Asakura preview

Staple info:

• 21-4 MMA, 0-0 UFC
• Height: 5’8″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: N/A”
• Last fight: TKO win over Juan Archuleta (Dec. 31, 2023)
• Camp: Japan Top Team (Japan)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ 2x RIZIN bantamweight champion
+ Regional MMA title
+ Zeno-kai karate black belt
+ Jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 13 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 12 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Works well to the body/in boxing range
+ Dangerous and dynamic knees
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ Strong first-layer defense
+ Urgent scrambler

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura point of interest: Flyweight power

As his nickname “The Cannibal” would suggest, Pantoja is an offensive marauder who isn’t afraid to shed blood in order to feed himself.

An inherent pressure fighter, Pantoja is typically at his best when coming forward and looking to corrall opposition toward the cage. Although Pantoja’s technique and defense can sometimes leave much to be desired, the Brazilian bruiser can flow through offensive phases like second nature and counters well in combination.

In fact, Pantoja has quietly developed his counter-striking savvy in his latter years, which, in turn, gives him both more breathing room and options to operate from on the feet.

Demonstrating excellent instincts in the clinch, Pantoja has a good feel for body knees and strikes off the break. However, Pantoja will need to respect the knees coming back his way when facing a fighter like Kai Asakura.

A devastating striker from Japan, Asakura is more in the mold of a karate-boxing archetype.

Only unfortunate thing about Kai Asakura coming to the UFC is that we wont get to see him shatter somebody’s jaw and then knee them in the head when they turtle up pic.twitter.com/MAjIC9quNG

— Movement Martials (@MVMNTMartials) November 30, 2024

Embracing the sweet science – while coming from a karate background – Asakura demonstrates the inherent distance management one would associate with his style. Whether Asakura is feinting or prodding with his lead hand, the 31-year-old challenger appears to keep his rear hand on a hair-trigger.

From intercepting uppercuts to overhands, Asakura will offer plenty of power threats that are capable of putting out opponents, regardless of the weight class. And though Asakura is good about going to the body with punches, the Japanese standout keeps some nasty knees in his back pocket for anyone trying to change levels on him.

朝倉海

Kai Asakura’s boxing skills setting up Knee to the body.

When Kai had Motoya in the corner, he landed a body-head combo and Motoya’s defense was not up to par. This cost him a Knockdown.

Later in the fight, Kai works in the clinch and keeps Motoya’s right arm high in… pic.twitter.com/HCTnM9RwNC

— Sweet Punch Memories (@SPM_staff) June 11, 2024

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Considering where the biggest on-paper disparity is in this fight, no one should be shocked if the champion tries to take this party to the floor.

However, as alluded to in the previous section, Asakura – outside of some solid first-layer takedown defense – presents some potent threats with his knees at multiple ranges.

Not only can Asakura catch opponents coming in with reactionary lifting or flying knees, but the RIZIN champion is also good about punishing opponents in the clinch.

Luckily for Pantoja, he seems to prefer almost chest-level takedown entries and works well from bodylock positions (which are great for avoiding front-headlock scenarios and closing the space needed for knees).

Despite not officially working on his wrestling until teaming up with Henry Cejudo post-“TUF,” Pantoja has always been a dangerous threat from the bodylock.

Parlaying off of his previously mentioned clinch striking, Pantoja is quick to lock his hands around his opposition and shuck them off to a side whenever possible.

Displaying good cage awareness, Pantoja wastes little time when it comes to wedging himself in between the fence and the back of his opposition. And once Pantoja is able to get the slightest bite on a position, the Shooto Brazil vet will jump at the opportunity to shift the fight’s dynamic.

In victory or defeat, seldom will you see anyone get to Pantoja’s back for prolonged periods or put him in precarious submission threats. In fact, the 17-year pro has a knack for turning negative positions around through his superb legwork and scrambling ability.

Forgot how good the legwork was between Pantoja and Royval throughout the initial minutes of the 1st round… the leg lock attempt/entanglement from Royval is fun, but man do I appreciate what Pantoja is trying to do prior with influential insteps and vines as he goes for the back pic.twitter.com/yNnwqvBPtc

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) January 13, 2022

Pantoja, who has incredible transitional instincts and chair sits, will have an edge when it comes to finding the back. And if Pantoja ends up on top, the American Top Team rep has some fantastic ground striking that’s not talked about enough.

Like a snake striking its prey on the nature channel, Pantoja possesses incredible accuracy and pop to the punches that slightly arc around his opponent’s guard.

Alexandre Pantoja ground-and-pound pic.twitter.com/2zBacuyt9I

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) July 5, 2023

Asakura, to his credit, has a solid butterfly guard and is an urgent scrambler who seldom accepts negative positions. That said, I’m not sure how his propensity to turtle will stack up with the champion’s back-taking sensibilities.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura odds

The oddsmakers and the public are currently favoring the sitting champion, listing Pantoja -280 and Asakura +210 via FanDuel.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura prediction, pick

Despite the betting public typically disrespecting Pantoja, I can’t say that I disagree with the spread listed above.

Although Pantoja is the deserved favorite, you can argue that respect is still being shown to Asakura’s chances – and rightfully so.

Pantoja has thus far proven to be unfinishable over his 17-year career, but Asakura will arguably be the hardest hitter the champ has seen since his 2019 loss to Deiveson Figueiredo. And if Asakura can be the one to crack Pantoja’s chin, then he’ll be making history in more ways than one this Saturday.

However, as much as I would love to see Japan finally get a UFC title, there are ultimately too many checkmarks in Pantoja’s favor to pick against him here.

Aside from this being Asakura’s first professional competition overseas, this will also be the first time Asakura has had to make the flyweight limit since 2017 (where he officially weighed in at 126 lbs.). And as far as the striking goes, Pantoja will have some quiet advantages there, as well.

Not only does Asakura’s lack of head movement and defense tend to fall apart on the back foot, but Pantoja – who has a background in muay Thai – has a knack for dictating the knee traffic in his fights (which will be crucial against this opponent).

Couple all that with the fact that Pantoja’s takedown chains along the fence will likely be even more effective against an opponent who is used to fighting in a ring, and I can’t help but see the UFC champion grounding Asakura and thriving inside of scrambles given the challenger’s propensity to turtle.

I’ll pick Pantoja to survive some early scares and lock up a submission by the end of Round 2.

Prediction: Pantoja inside the distance