Analytics help high-powered Amador Valley reach CIF Division 3-AA championship game
Amador Valley’s offense didn’t do much celebrating after scoring touchdowns in the Dons’ 44-33 victory over McClymonds in the NorCal 3-AA championship game last weekend.
They were too busy getting ready for their two-point conversion attempt. Coach Danny Jones’ boys don’t hesitate for even a moment, and why should they?
The hyper-aggressive philosophy that has helped propel the Pleasanton school into Friday’s CIF 3-AA championship matchup against Frontier-Bakersfield at Long Beach City College is rooted in cold, hard statistics.
Why accept that a touchdown will probably turn into seven points, when the numbers indicated that going for two was the correct decision?
“We looked it up and by Week Three, we were up to an 80% success rate or so,” Jones told the Bay Area News Group after the NorCal game.
Receiver Aidan Foley said that the number has gone down only slightly as the year progressed, the team converting on 47 of its 65 touchdowns.
The tactic was borne out of necessity after the team’s kicker was hurt to start the year. But now, the Dons are all-in on the two-or-nothing strategy that has helped AV score at least 30 points in each of its last five games.
“When he told us the percentage, that we were up to like a 75% success rate, everyone was like, ‘Let’s keep doing this and keep going with it,’” Foley said.
Amador Valley (10-4) defeated Las Lomas, Windsor and Bishop O’Dowd to capture the North Coast Section Division II title, and then took down perennial Oakland powerhouse McClymonds to follow up the program’s first-ever section crown with a NorCal title.
“It’s for all the teams that have come before, and all the players and families who couldn’t get this opportunity,” said Jones, who has coached at Amador for nine years. “It’s for all of those guys.”
The biggest reason for Amador’s success is the play of its elite dual-threat quarterback Tristan Tia, an Oregon State commit who has thrown for 3,758 yards, run for 871 yards and accounted for 50 touchdowns.
When the Dons need a big play, he’s come up big more often than not with either a crucial run or an accurate throw. On two-point conversions, a sneak from the 6-foot-3 Tia is an almost automatic two points.
“I’m going with the flow, and I’m doing what I know I can do. I know I’ve put in the work for this, so it’s great seeing the hard work help us flourish on the field,” Tia said.
Though Tia, receiver Anthony Harrington and the explosive passing game get most of the publicity, Amador also has a dependable run game.
Ismael Duenas has rushed for 1,067 yards, going over 100 yards in each of his past five games. The 200-pound bruiser is adept at gashing light boxes that are terrified of Tia’s big-arm-making plays in the air.
“Ish is a great kid and he freaking runs really, really hard,” Jones said. “Whether we run the rock or throw the ball, we can be effective either way. ”
Amador’s final opponent will be formidable. Frontier, which romped past Murrieta Mesa 39-7 in the SoCal regional, has a defense led by strong pass-rushers Logan Slaton and LJ Riley.
But with the Dons’ white-hot offense and mathematically-sound attack firing on all cylinders entering Friday’s championship game, Frontier could have trouble figuring out a solution.
“I don’t think there’s anyone who can stop us,” Foley said. “You know Tristan provides so much versatility because he can run, he can throw, and then we have Ish who can just run downhill.”