2024 Bears: Hope springs eternal — for good reason
Dare to dream?
Whether it's unabashed optimism or nervous excitement, the anticipation for the Bears’ 2024 season and the possibility of a breakthrough to playoff contention — or better — is peaking as the Bears prepare to open training camp Friday at Halas Hall.
Expectations should probably be tempered for a franchise that chronically disappoints and a team that has finished 3-14 and 7-10 in Matt Eberflus’ two seasons as head coach. In fact, the Bears’ 16-35 record in the past three seasons ranks 31st among the 32 NFL teams.
Then again, the last time there was this much excitement over a Bears team coming off a losing season — in 2018, when Matt Nagy replaced John Fox as head coach after a 5-11 season in 2017 — the Bears lived up to the hope and the hype. They finished 12-4 and won the NFC North. The Bears’ 14-34 record in the three seasons preceding that playoff season ranked 30th among the 32 NFL teams.
That turned out to be a house of cards, built upon the unsturdy foundation of Vic Fangio’s top-ranked defense, and quickly collapsed. But the 2024 team objectively has more going for it, largely as a result of general manager Ryan Poles’ masterstroke of trading the No. 1 overall pick in 2023 to the Panthers for a haul that keeps on paying dividends.
It starts with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams — on paper a big upgrade over Mitch Trubisky. While Trubisky was the surprising No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft, Williams was the consensus No. 1 overall pick this year and touted as one of the best quarterback prospects in years — with comparisons to Joe Burrow and Andrew Luck in potential NFL impact.
And while Williams has yet to take a snap in the NFL, he also is the beneficiary of good timing that neither Trubisky nor Justin Fields had — with a supporting cast that a No. 1 overall draft pick rarely has.
Williams not only has Pro Bowl receivers in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, but a touted rookie wide receiver in No. 9 overall pick Rome Odunze and an up-and-coming tight end in Cole Kmet (who was an unproven second-year player in Fields’ rookie season in 2021, but is coming off a 73-catch, 719-yard, six-touchdown season heading into Williams’ rookie season).
The betting lines on Williams’ rookie statistics tell the tale of optimism. His “over-under” passing yardage total of 3,500.5 per BetOnline.ag far exceeds Fields’ passing-yardage betting line of 2,850.5 at this time last year (Fields finished with 2,562 yards).
Williams also figures to have the benefit of a defense that expects to be in the top 10 in scoring after finishing strong last season — leading the NFL in fewest offensive points allowed (15.4 average) over the final eight games.
So the Bears’ arrow is predictably pointing up heading into this season — just don’t get carried away. The Bears are 30-1 (BetMGM.com) and 40-1 (FanDuel) to win the Super Bowl. They are 16th in ESPN’s preseason power rankings. Their win total in most sportsbooks is 8.5, with a heavy lean to the over (-165).
With that in mind, here is our annual test of Bears fans’ optimism/pessimism for the upcoming season. Rate these categories, with 10 points for an optimistic vote, minus-10 for a pessimistic vote and zero for a neutral vote.
CALEB WILLIAMS
Optimist: With quality weapons and a strong running game, Williams quickly grows into the franchise quarterback role. He learns well, makes his teammates better, stays healthy, plays well in the fourth quarter, completes 64.1% of his passes and breaks franchise records for passing yards (4,109) and touchdowns (32), with a 100.9 passer rating.
Pessimist: While showing a better instinct for the position than Justin Fields, Williams quickly finds out he’s not in the Pac-12 anymore, as he is often flummoxed by NFL defenses and dogged by inconsistency. He still finishes with better numbers than Fields — 2,850 yards, 18 touchdowns and an 88.4 passer rating. But he is not a revelation and not the best rookie quarterback in the NFL.
SHANE WALDRON
Optimist: His experience with two different quarterbacks who made the Pro Bowl under his watch — Russell Wilson and Geno Smith — makes the difference, as Waldron designs his offense around what Caleb Williams does best and it pays off big. The only question is, will Waldron be here in 2025?
Pessimist: Waldron joins a long list of Bears offensive coordinators who struggle to implement their system. With a rookie quarterback, the offense is a season-long work in progress, and with Matt Eberflus on the hot seat, it remains to be seen if Waldron will be here in 2025.
DJ MOORE/KEENAN ALLEN
Optimist: The “race to 1,000” becomes an entertaining sideshow as Moore (86 receptions, 1,474 yards, 12 touchdowns) and Allen (101-1,247, 9 touchdowns) complement each other perfectly and give the Bears their most productive receiving duo since Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery — without the headaches.
Pessimist: The “race to 750” becomes an all-too-typical tale of Bears offensive disappointment as Moore (63 receptions, 815 yards, six touchdowns) and a suddenly aging Allen (67-777, 4 touchdowns) are unable to lift a first-year offense with a rookie quarterback by themselves.
JAYLON JOHNSON
Optimist: Turns a four-year, $76 million contract extension into a win-win for both sides by taking his game to another level. Buoyed by an improving defense with playmakers at all three levels, Johnson is a first-team All-Pro shutdown corner who elevates the entire secondary.
Pessimist: After a stellar prove-it year in 2023 that earned him the extension, human nature takes its toll and Johnson reverts to prior form — still pretty good, but not the difference-maker the Bears are paying him to be, and eventually eclipsed by Tyrique Stevenson as the Bears’ best cornerback.
MATT EBERFLUS
Optimist: With the wind finally at his back, Eberflus rides the wave of an improved offense with a playmaker at quarterback — keeping Eberflus in a comfort zone that doesn’t ask him to do too much. As it turns out, he’s a pretty good coach when his assistants aren’t firing themselves.
Pessimist: After an offseason makeover that seemed to re-brand a coach who seemed in over his head, reality hits in training camp — as injuries mount, the offense struggles with a rookie quarterback, and the pass rush becomes a problem again. And Jim Harbaugh goes 13-4 with the Chargers.
THE DEFENSE
Optimist: With a playmaker at all three levels — and emerging stars in safety Jaquan Brisker, cornerbacks Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon and defensive tackle Gervon Dexter — the Bears build off the strong 2023 finish and reach a level of dominance that takes the heat off Shane Waldron’s developing offense.
Pessimist: A subpar pass rush — with defensive end Montez Sweat unable to match his 2023 impact — creates a chain-reaction that robs the defense of its bite, creates a takeaway void and stunts the momentum from last season. The defense is good, but not great.
ROME ODUNZE
Optimist: With DJ Moore and Keenan Allen attracting attention from the best defensive backs, Odunze has an edge in most of his matchups and parlays that advantage into a banner season — 71 receptions, 1,185 yards and six touchdowns — that makes Allen a luxury instead of a necessity for 2025.
Pessimist: A first-year NFL receiver in a first-year offense with a rookie quarterback makes the learning curve a little steeper than anticipated as Odunze shows flashes but has to wait his turn behind proven veterans. He finishes with 52 receptions for 720 yards and four touchdowns.
OFFENSIVE LINE
Optimist: Two years of instability under line coach Chris Morgan finally come to an end as the lineup of Braxton Jones-Teven Jenkins-Ryan Bates-Nate Davis-Darnell Wright starts 15 or more games with minimal interruption, and the Bears are top 10 in rushing and fewest sacks allowed.
Pessimist: Darnell Wright is a rock, but the only one, as the Bears again struggle to field a consistent lineup. Nate Davis is an enigma. Teven Jenkins’ tough luck continues. Center is a black hole. And Braxton Jones stagnates. And Caleb Williams pays the price.
GERVON DEXTER
Optimist: After showing progress as a rookie that was difficult to quantify, Dexter blossoms in his second season under defensive line coach Travis Smith and defensive coordinator Eric Washington and develops into the difference-making 3-technique that drives the engine of Eberflus’ defense.
Pessimist: It turns out that Dexter’s ceiling isn’t quite as high as the Bears thought, as the 2023 second-round pick struggles with pad-level, consistency with fundamentals and other nuances of a key position and stagnates — as Jalen Carter blossoms into a star with the Eagles.
THE 2024 SEASON
Optimist: With the best balance of any team since the Ditka era — a run/pass offense, a three-tiered defense and quality special teams — the Bears get solid footing in a playable early schedule, pick up steam for the tougher second half and finish 11-6 and win a playoff game.
Pessimist: Winning with a rookie quarterback in a first-year offense proves problematic as injuries and inconsistency prove costly. The Bears make progress, but still have to learn how to win — and finish 7-10, with a big decision to make on Eberflus.
Scoring
90-100: Lay off the Kool-Aid.
70-80: Must be new in town.
30-60: Realist.
20 to minus-20: Seeing is believing.
Minus-50 to minus-70: Waiting for Ditka’s return.
Minus-80 to minus-100: Packers fan.