Cubs have to prove they're contenders as they come out of All-Star break

When the Cubs return from the All-Star break on Friday, they dive right into a make-or-break stretch against the Diamondbacks, whom they’re trailing in the National League wild-card race, and the Brewers, who they trail in the division race.

And one game into a series against the Reds, a division and wild-card foe, the Cubs will run into the July 30 trade deadline.

The Cubs (47-51) kept themselves in the conversation with a 5-2 road trip to Baltimore and St. Louis to enter the break on a high note. But their work proving they can be contenders is far from over.

They’re still in last place in the division and 3½ games back of the last NL wild-card spot.

Considering the two-month-long rut the Cubs went through, it’s remarkable that they’re still that close — although the Brewers are running away with the division, 4½ games up on the No. 2 Cardinals and 8½ games ahead of the Cubs.

At the All-Star break, the Braves (53-42), Cardinals (50-46) and Mets (49-46) occupied the three NL wild-card spots. Six other teams were within 3½ games of the last spot.

“Honestly, crazy,” veteran Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks said. “Never really seen a year like this. It's going to make the stretch run really cool. It's going to make it really fun for fans — and for us, being in it. You know you’ve got a chance. It could take a hot week or two and you're right back up there and in it.”

Now, teams across the league, including the Cubs, are evaluating what that tight race means for their trade deadline plans.

“The first thing to understand is the trade deadline is a very different thing than it was 15 years ago, 10 years ago,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said in Tampa Bay back in June, when deadline questions first began percolating. “... The last couple years, it’s been dramatically different.”

The expanded playoff format, introduced in 2022, is the root of the shift. With more playoff spots, teams have been more reticent to wave the white flag early. That disrupted the balance between trade partners.

It also put those teams that were out of it, and ready to trade major-league talent to playoff contenders for prospects, in a powerful negotiating position.

The last two postseasons have only reinforced the thought that any team that got in had a chance at a deep run. All they needed was a well-timed hot streak. The teams that claimed the third NL wild-card spots in 2022 and 2023 — the Phillies and Diamondbacks, respectively — made it to the World Series.

It’s an awkward landscape for a team like the Cubs this year.

Their rotation has been even better than expected and carried them through the first half. And they’ve had flashes where they’ve looked like a complete team. But those moments have been too few and far between to inspire confidence in a consistent second half.

On the flip side, isn’t that what the trade deadline is for? Teams have a chance to reinforce any weak spots exposed in the first half to prepare for the stretch run and postseason. And a team with the high profile and market size of the Cubs can’t cry poor.

One thing is clear:especially after how close the Cubs came to making the playoffs last season, anything short of a postseason berth will be a failure. The front office’s approach to the deadline will show whether it believes the team is still in the race.