It’s not just South Texas. Republicans are making gains with Latino voters in big cities, too.

Republicans have logged historic gains in South Texas the last couple of elections, making political battlegrounds out of border communities that voted solidly Democratic for years. That change has largely overshadowed the more subtle rightward shift of Latino voters in cities and suburbs away from the border. The threat of eroding Latino support in urban areas could spell even bigger trouble for Democrats’ abiding hopes of turning Texas blue, because far more Latino voters live in these areas than in South Texas. While Democrats may not lose those precincts soon, they will continue to be locked out of statewide elections if Republicans are able to continue peeling off nearly 40% of the vote there.