How sexism will play a role in close Harris-Trump presidential race

There is a real possibility that the United States may finally elect its first female president.

But in polling that we conducted in August 2024, after Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee, we found that sexism is still a powerful force in American politics.

Yes, the scars of the 2016 campaign — in which sexism played a key role in Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s defeat by Trump — are still fresh for Democrats. But many hope that America has changed and has become more accepting of women in leadership roles.

Harris’ gender, this argument goes, won’t be a significant deterrent for voters.

On the surface, our recent nationally representative survey of 1,000 American adults supports this, with 51% agreeing with the statement: "America is ready for its first African American female president." Only 23% disagreed.

Even so, some Republicans appear to think they can win by making gender an issue in the campaign. This is apparent in the sexist rhetoric that Trump and other Republicans use when talking about Harris.

Trump, who has a history of making sexist statements, asserted that foreign leaders would regard Harris as a "play toy," referred to her as unintelligent, and is now commenting on her appearance. Both The Associated Press and The New York Times have reported — based on unnamed sources — that Trump has also called Harris a "b—h" in private, although Trump’s spokesman denied he used that term.

In a similar sexist vein, Trump allies have attempted to turn Harris’ past romantic relationships into campaign issues, with one conservative commentator on Fox Business News crudely labeling Harris the "original hawk tuah girl," an obscene sexual reference.

Will such attempts to exploit sexism as an electoral strategy backfire? Or, after all these years, might it still be out of reach for a woman to overcome sexist stereotypes and win the highest office in the United States?

Two surveys on ‘hostile sexism’

We are political scientists who study the role of identity in American politics and who conduct polls that explore Americans’ views on gender and the extent to which sexism still pervades the nation.

We conducted two national polls this year — one in January 2024 when President Joe Biden was still in the race, and the other in August 2024, after Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee. For each poll, we surveyed 1,000 Americans 18 and older about the election, their policy views and their attitudes toward various groups in society.

With the change at the top of the Democratic ticket, we can better assess the impact of sexism on vote choice in the presidential election by comparing the results from January, when the race featured two male candidates, with August., when Harris entered the race.

In both surveys, we first asked respondents which candidate they would vote for if the presidential election were held that day.

To measure sexism, we then asked respondents whether they agreed or disagreed with a series of three statements that express prejudice, resentment and animus toward women, or what political scientists call “hostile sexism.” The statements in the "hostile sexism" battery are: "Women seek to gain power by getting control over men"; "Women are too easily offended"; and "Women exaggerate problems they have at work." Greater agreement with these statements indicated more sexist views.

We also measured respondents' age, gender, race, education, income, political attitudes and identities, views on the economy, and racial views.

Sexist folks tend to prefer GOP

Due in part to Trump’s sexist rhetoric throughout his campaigns and presidency, sexist attitudes have become closely linked with whom individuals support for president. On average, more sexist individuals have tended to prefer Republican candidates in recent elections.

Thus, even in our January poll when Biden was the Democratic nominee, sexism was strongly correlated with support for Trump. When we examined a head-to-head match-up between Biden and Trump, the more individuals agreed with the statements measuring hostile sexism, the more likely they were to prefer Trump over Biden.

Of those who most strongly disagreed with the statements measuring hostile sexism, 73% supported Biden, while approximately two-thirds of those scoring highest on the sexism scale supported Trump.

Taking into consideration other factors that influence support for Biden — partisanship, ideology, racial attitudes, education, economic views, etc. — we found that those with the least sexist views had an 83% chance of supporting Biden, while those with the most sexist views had a 17% chance of doing so.

If sexism depressed individuals’ support for Biden’s candidacy, does that mean Harris faces no additional penalty in terms of lost support for her candidacy? Hardly.

Hostile sexism, as we measured it, costs Harris votes.

While sexism mattered in January, it mattered more in August once Harris had taken over the Democratic ticket.

In a head-to-head match-up between Harris and Trump, 89% of those in the lowest third on the sexism scale — those who disagreed most with the statements measuring hostile sexism — support Harris, compared with 11% for Trump. On the other hand, only 18% of those scoring highest on sexism support Harris, versus 82% for Trump.

When we take into account other considerations that influence whether individuals prefer Harris or Trump, our findings are even more striking. The least sexist respondents have a 92% chance of saying they will vote for Harris. But the most sexist respondents have only a 4% chance of supporting her.

This means that, while sexist attitudes influenced individuals’ presidential preferences when Biden was the Democratic presidential nominee, they have a greater effect now that Harris is the Democratic candidate.

Since Harris seems to be narrowly leading Trump in the polls, why should we care about the influence of hostile sexism in the election?

To answer this question, imagine a world in which hostile sexism doesn’t influence attitudes toward presidential candidates who are women. Our findings imply that, in such a world, Harris’ lead over Trump might be larger. Put simply, hostile sexism is helping to make the election closer than it would otherwise be.

Sexism has long played a powerful role in influencing Americans’ voting behavior and attitudes toward political issues. This is especially so today, given the high political importance of gender-related issues such as abortion, contraception and LGBTQ+ rights.

Our analysis shows that people with negative attitudes toward women are much less likely to support Harris for president. Whether the Harris campaign can successfully navigate this reality is still to be determined.

Adam Eichen is a Ph.D. researcher in political science, Jesse Rhodes is an associate professor of political science, and Tatishe Nteta is a provost professor of political science and director of the UMass Amherst Poll. They are at UMass Amherst.

The views and opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Chicago Sun-Times or any of its affiliates.

The Sun-Times welcomes letters to the editor and op-eds. See our guidelines.

Get Opinions content delivered to your inbox.

This article was originally published on theconversation.com.