Paths of cognitive and social-emotional delays before age three in rural China: Predictive power on skills at preschool age

by Lei Wang, Dingjing Jiang, Yifei Chen, Siqi Zhang, Scott Rozelle

Cognitive and social-emotional development in the first three years of life is associated with later skills. However, little is known about the paths of developmental delays in both cognitive and social-emotional skills before age 3 or to what extent these paths predict later developmental outcomes. The aim of this study is to examine the associations between the different paths of developmental delays in both cognitive and social-emotional skills of children before age 3 and the levels of development of the children when they are preschool age. Using a longitudinal data collected at three time points from 1245 children and their caregivers in rural China, we identified four different paths of developmental delays in cognitive and social-emotional before age 3 and examined how these paths are associated with different levels of developmental outcomes at preschool age. We used a non-parametric standardization approach and an ordinary least squares model to perform our analyses. Findings show that rates of developmental delays in either cognitive or social-emotional domain or both domains are high at all different time points, ranging from 20% to 55% for cognitive delays and 42% to 61% for social-emotional delays. Over half of children experienced deteriorating levels of either cognitive or social-emotional development before age 3. A large share of children was found to be persistently delayed in either domain. Only a small share of children raised their levels of development in either domain before age 3. In addition, we identified certain socioeconomic status of the family that are associated with never or deteriorating path of child developmental delays. More importantly, we revealed that different paths of developmental delays before age 3 have predictive power on different levels of developmental outcomes at preschool age. Our results suggest that actions are needed at the earliest times to improve child development when children are still infants or toddlers.