College football bowl picks, playoff and non-playoff games alike
If I tried to explain to you what an NCAA Tournament bracket pool is, you’d look at me as though I had three heads. Everybody knows the bracket drill.
Less ubiquitous are confidence pools during college football bowls season. Many of you know how these work, too.
For those who don’t, however, the rules are simple. Step 1: Pick your winners of every postseason game. Step 2: Assign a ‘‘confidence’’ number to each winner. Step 3: Wallow in self-doubt until you notice how much time has gone by and reach Step 4, which is saying, ‘‘What the hell am I doing with my life?’’
There are 36 bowls outside the College Football Playoff and four first-round playoff games whose matchups we already know. Leaving the rest of the playoff — the unknowable — out of the equation, that’s 40 winners for us to pick.
From there, we assign 40 points to the winner we’re most confident in and descend in order until we’ve assigned a single point to the winner in which we’re least confident.
I’ll use my first-round playoff picks as examples. I’m so sure Texas will beat Clemson that I’m putting 40 points on the Longhorns. I’m also putting 36 on Penn State to beat SMU, 32 on Notre Dame to beat Indiana and 24 on Ohio State to beat Tennessee.
But the playoff games are the least complicated to consider because so many players on non-playoff teams are entering the transfer portal or opting out of bowl games to prepare for the NFL Draft. Some bowl teams will be unrecognizable versions of themselves. Before you risk anything on these games, you might want to do a little homework.
Or you can just crib off my picks.
Celebration: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State, Saturday
The MEAC champ is 6-2 against the SWAC champ in this bowl. That’s reason enough to put 6 on SCSU.
Salute to Veterans: South Alabama vs. Western Michigan, Saturday
Even with its QB1’s availability in doubt, South Alabama is good for a 25 in a home-state (Montgomery) game.
Frisco: No. 25 Memphis vs. West Virginia, Tuesday
WVU is a snoozy 6-6 and has some key guys missing this one. Ten-win Memphis gets 23.
Boca Raton: James Madison vs. Western Kentucky, Wednesday
Putting 26 on JMU, which plays strong defense, leads the nation in turnover margin and — unlike its opponent — hasn’t had that much roster flux.
LA: No. 24 UNLV vs. Cal, Wednesday
A lucky 7 on the team from Vegas, please.
New Orleans: Sam Houston vs. Georgia Southern, Thursday
One team has more than 20 scholarship players in the portal, and it isn’t Georgia Southern, which gets 28.
Cure: Ohio vs. Jacksonville State, Friday
A 19-spot for the MAC champs, even with coach Tim Albin having left for Charlotte.
Gasparilla: Florida vs. Tulane, Friday
QB Darian Mensah portaled from Tulane to Duke and took the Green Wave’s chances with him — 34 on the Gators.
Myrtle Beach: Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA, Dec. 23
Does Coastal even have a QB left to run out there? UTSA for 37.
Potato: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State, Dec. 23
NIU’s upset of No. 5 Notre Dame can’t just be forgotten. Gimme 5, Huskies.
Hawaii: South Florida vs. San Jose State, Dec. 24
U-S-F! U-S-F! For 10.
GameAbove Sports: Pitt vs. Toledo, Dec. 26
Pitt fell way off after being ranked as high as 18th in the land. I’ve got 29 on a bounce-back.
Rate: Rutgers vs. Kansas State, Dec. 26
Two tough-minded teams, but K-Staters know how to win — 16.
68 Ventures: Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green, Dec. 26
September score reminder: Penn State 34, BGSU 27. And it’s BGSU here for 27.
Armed Forces: Navy vs. Oklahoma, Dec. 27
An upset would be fun, but 21 on the bigger, faster Sooners.
Birmingham: Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt, Dec. 27
Vandy gets QB Diego Pavia’s jersey number: 2.
Liberty: Arkansas vs. Texas Tech, Dec. 27
Woo! Pig! Sooie! A 3 on the Hogs.
Holiday: No. 21 Syracuse vs. Washington State, Dec. 27
Rolling big — 35 — on Syracuse, which stared down Miami when Miami absolutely had to win.
Las Vegas: USC vs. Texas A&M, Dec. 27
Two disappointing teams belong together, but the pick is Trojans for 8.
Fenway: UConn vs. North Carolina, Dec. 28
Putting Ted Williams’ number — 9 — on UConn at Fenway Park.
Pinstripe: Boston College vs. Nebraska, Dec. 28
Is cheering for Boston at Yankee Stadium wrong? BC for 4.
New Mexico: TCU vs. Louisiana, Dec. 28
TCU’s excellent second half of the season demands a big ol’ 33.
Pop-Tarts: No. 13 Miami vs. No. 18 Iowa State, Dec. 28
Is Miami’s morale shot? A fairly confident 18 on ISU.
Arizona: Colorado State vs. Miami (Ohio), Dec. 28
The other Miami too often struggles to score — 14 on CSU.
Military: N.C. State vs. East Carolina, Dec. 28
N.C. State for 13 because there’s no rolling over allowed against another team with “Carolina” in its name.
Alamo: No. 17 BYU vs. No. 23 Colorado, Dec. 28
Deion Sanders insists his stars are playing. OK, then, 12 on the Buffs.
Independence: No. 22 Army vs. Marshall, Dec. 28
There’s no stopping Army in this one. Going huge — 39 — with zero hesitation.
Music City: No. 19 Missouri vs. Iowa, Dec. 30
Dueling black-and-golds? Love it. Iowa for 11.
ReliaQuest: No. 11 Alabama vs. Michigan, Dec. 31
Michigan was on my mind until its best two defensive players opted out. Instead, 30 on Bama.
Sun: Louisville vs. Washington, Dec. 31
Next season starts now for Washington, an underdog that gets a 15 from me.
Citrus: No. 15 South Carolina vs. No. 20 Illinois, Dec. 31
Some 9-3s are better than others — 20 on the Gamecocks.
Texas: LSU vs. Baylor, Dec. 31
LSU has loads of talent but no mojo. Another upset — 17 on Baylor.
Gator: No. 14 Ole Miss vs. Duke, Jan. 2
QB Jaxson Dart is a go, and that means 38 easy-breezy points on Ole Miss.
First Responder: North Texas vs. Texas State, Jan. 3
Texas State is a 31-point play against a team forced into starting a true freshman QB with almost no game reps.
Mayo: Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech, Jan. 3
I’ve got 22 points on P.J. Fleck running his bowl record at Minnesota to 6-0.
Bahamas: Liberty vs. Buffalo, Jan. 4
What do you want from me? I flipped a coin and it came up Buffalo for 1.