Novel travel time aware metapopulation models and multi-layer waning immunity for late-phase epidemic and endemic scenarios

by Henrik Zunker, René Schmieding, David Kerkmann, Alain Schengen, Sophie Diexer, Rafael Mikolajczyk, Michael Meyer-Hermann, Martin J. Kühn

In the realm of infectious disease control, accurate modeling of the transmission dynamics is pivotal. As human mobility and commuting patterns are key components of communicable disease spread, we introduce a novel travel time aware metapopulation model. Our model aims to enhance estimations of disease transmission. By providing more reliable assessments on the efficacy of interventions, curtailing personal rights or human mobility behavior through interventions can be minimized. The proposed model is an advancement over traditional compartmental models, integrating explicit transmission on travel and commute, a factor available in agent-based models but often neglected with metapopulation models. Our approach employs a multi-edge graph ODE-based (Graph-ODE) model, which represents the intricate interplay between mobility and disease spread. This granular modeling is particularly important when assessing the dynamics in densely connected urban areas or when heterogeneous structures across entire countries have to be assessed. The given approach can be coupled with any kind of ODE-based model. In addition, we propose a novel multi-layer waning immunity model that integrates waning of different paces for protection against mild and severe courses of the disease. As this is of particular interest for late-phase epidemic or endemic scenarios, we consider the late-phase of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany. The results of this work show that accounting for resolved mobility significantly influences the pattern of outbreaks. The improved model provides a refined tool for predicting outbreak trajectories and evaluating intervention strategies in relation to mobility by allowing us to assess the transmission that result on traveling. The insights derived from this model can serve as a basis for decisions on the implementation or suspension of interventions, such as mandatory masks on public transportation. Eventually, our model contributes to maintaining mobility as a social good while reducing exuberant disease dynamics potentially driven by travel activities.