The cheat sheet: Patrick Mahomes is the real deal — and the real heal — for the Chiefs

Best Bet 

TEXANS at CHIEFS

Time: Noon, Saturday, NBC 5.

Line: Chiefs by 3½.

Total: 41½.

Records (overall/ATS): Texans 9-5/6-6-2; Chiefs 13-1/6-8.

Durability is one of those quarterback qualities that is hard to project, probably because there’s so much luck involved.

Caleb Williams is three games from becoming the first Bears quarterback to play an entire season without missing a game because of injury since Jay Cutler in 2014 — and he has been pushing the limit recently. The Bengals’ Joe Burrow had two season-ending injuries in his first four seasons. The Bills’ Josh Allen hasn’t missed a game because of injury since his rookie season in 2018 — he has started 102 consecutive games, the longest active streak among quarterbacks in the NFL.

The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes might be in a category of his own, with his ability to play through pain and recuperate quickly. Mahomes has missed two games for injury since he became the Chiefs’ starting quarterback in 2018. He suffered a knee injury on a fourth-and-one sneak against the Broncos and missed the next two games.

But it’s those recuperative powers that are most notable. Mahomes suffered what was described as a high ankle sprain in the Chiefs’ divisional playoff game against the Jaguars in 2023. That’s often a six-week injury and rarely less than two games. Mahomes missed one series. (And, typical of the Chiefs’ resilience, backup Chad Henne drove the Chiefs 98 yards on 12 plays for a touchdown that made the difference in a 27-20 victory.)

Mahomes returned the next week against the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game and was clearly hobbling but gutted it out in a 23-20 victory and then beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl.

It was similar to the divisional-round game against the Browns in 2021, when Mahomes was knocked out with a concussion. The Chiefs held on with Henne, and Mahomes returned the next week to beat the Bills before losing to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl.

So there was little panic when Mahomes limped off the field after suffering a high ankle sprain against the Browns last week, with Carson Wentz finishing a 21-7 victory.

And sure enough, Mahomes practiced all week on the bum ankle and is expected to start Saturday against the Texans with the Chiefs (13-1) needing one victory to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Mahomes has a high ankle sprain but no injury designation for the game. That’s another reason why he’s Patrick Mahomes.

Pick: Chiefs 20, Texans 16.

Top plays

VIKINGS at SEAHAWKS

Time: 3:05 p.m.

Line: Vikings by 3.

Total: 43½.

Records (overall/ATS): Vikings 12-2/9-4-1; Seahawks 8-6/6-7-1.

Outlook: Vikings have won seven straight (4-3 ATS) and have a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC after a 30-12 home win over the Bears. But they have their flaws — they had nine penalties and a punt blocked vs. the Bears. Still, the Seahawks are not great at home — losing 30-13 to the Packers last week —and QB Geno Smith has a bum ankle.

Pick: Vikings 20,
Seahawks 13.

BROWNS at BENGALS

Time: Noon.

Line: Bengals by 7½.

Total: 47.

Records (overall/ATS): Browns 3-11/4-10; Bengals 6-8/8-6.

Outlook: Browns are always a threat in this rivalry regardless of their record but probably not so much at the end of the season, especially with Nick Chubb out. Bengals still have a chance at the playoffs and QB Joe Burrow is driven to make the most of it. Bengals are 4-4 SU, but 7-1 ATS in the last eight vs. the Browns.

Pick: Bengals 31, Browns 20.

RAMS at JETS

Time: Noon.

Line: Rams by 3.

Total: 46½.

Records (overall/ATS): Rams 8-6/7-7; Jets 4-10/5-9.

Outlook: Aaron Rodgers is always dangerous when he’s locked in with Davante Adams, who had nine catches for 198 yards and two touchdowns, plus a two-point conversion — all in the second half — vs. the Jaguars. Sean McVay’s Rams are on a roll. In back-to-back games, they allowed 42 points vs. the Bills and scored 12 vs. the 49ers — and won both.

Pick: Rams 27, Jets 23.

The rest of the games

LIONS at BEARS

Time: Noon, Fox 32.

Line: Lions by 6½. Total: 47.

Records (overall/ATS): Lions 12-2/9-5; Bears 4-10/6-6-2.

Outlook: The Bears have lost eight straight (3-5 ATS) and have shown no spunk since the firing of coach Matt Eberflus. But the Lions’ defense is withering because of injuries — allowing 13 TDs on its last 25 drives since halftime of Thanksgiving game vs. the Bears.

Pick: Lions 30, Bears 24.

STEELERS at RAVENS

Time: 3:30 p.m. Saturday, Fox 32.

Line: Ravens by 6½. Total: 45½.

Records (overall/ATS): Steelers 10-4/10-4; Ravens 9-5/7-6-1.

Outlook: The Steelers are Lamar Jackson’s kryptonite. Jackson has a 128.5 rating (32 TDs, two INTs) in his last 12 games, with a 100+ rating in 11 — except for a clunker (66.1) in an 18-15 loss to the Steelers. But Steelers’ injuries make this a tougher call.

Pick: Ravens 23, Steelers 17.

TITANS at COLTS

Time: Noon.

Line: Colts by 3½. Total: 42½.

Records (overall/ATS): Titans 3-11/2-12; Colts 6-8/8-6.

Outlook: The Colts will be going all out to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. After going 6-1-1 ATS in their 4-4 start, they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six (2-4 SU). The Titans’ only two covers this season are on the road.

Pick: Colts 26, Titans 21.

EAGLES at COMMANDERS

Time: Noon.

Line: Eagles by 3½. Total: 45.

Records (overall/ATS): Eagles 12-2/9-5; Commanders 9-5/8-5-1.

Outlook: The Eagles have won 10 straight (7-3 ATS) and are eyeing the No. 1 seed in the NFC, especially with the Lions’ spate of injuries. The Commanders led the Eagles 10-6 in the fourth quarter on the road before losing 26-18.

Pick: Eagles 23, Commanders 18.

GIANTS at FALCONS

Time: Noon

Line: Falcons by 9. Total: 42.

Records (overall/ATS): Giants 2-12/3-10-1; Falcons 7-7/5-8-1.

Outlook: Falcons rookie QB Michael Penix has a big number to cover in his first NFL start, but the Falcons’ offense could be rejuvenated by the change after Kirk Cousins floundered in his last five games (one TD, nine INTs).

Pick: Falcons 24, Giants 13.

CARDINALS at PANTHERS

Time: Noon.

Line: Cardinals by 3½. Total: 46½.

Records (overall/ATS): Cardinals 7-7/9-5; Panthers 3-11/6-8.

Outlook: A week after nearly beating the Eagles on the road, the Panthers lost 30-14 to the Cowboys at home. Cardinals are motivated to win but not necessarily cover.

Pick: Cardinals 24, Panthers 16.

JAGUARS at RAIDERS

Time: 3:25 p.m.

Line: Raiders by 1. Total: 40.

Records (overall/ATS): Jaguars 3-11/7-6-1; Raiders 2-12/5-8-1.

Outlook: This game should be postponed until both of these platoons are better rested.

Pick: Jaguars 19, Raiders 17.

49ERS at DOLPHINS

Time: 3:25 p.m.

Line: Dolphins by 1½. Total: 44½.

Records (overall/ATS): 49ers 6-8/5-9; Dolphins 6-8/5-9.

Outlook: The 49ers have lost 4 of their last 5 (1-4 ATS), beating only the Bears. The Dolphins haven’t been much better lately.

Pick: 49ers 24, Dolphins 20.

PATRIOTS at BILLS

Time: 3:25 p.m., CBS 2.

Line: Bills by 14. Total: 46½.

Records (overall/ATS): Patriots 3-11/5-8-1; Bills 11-3/9-5.

Outlook: After allowing 44 points to the Rams and 42 to the Lions, the Bills’ defense will take it out on the Patriots.

Pick: Bills 34, Patriots 10.

BUCCANEERS at COWBOYS

Time: 7:20 p.m., NBC 5.

Line: Buccaneers by 3½. Total: 48½.

Records (overall/ATS): Buccaneers 8-6/9-5; Cowboys 6-8/5-8-1.

Outlook: The Buccaneers have won four straight, but Mike McCarthy has the Cowboys playing well despite being out of the playoffs.

Pick: Buccaneers 34, Cowboys 31.

SAINTS at PACKERS

Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ABC 7, ESPN.

Line: Packers by 14. Total: 42½.

Records (overall/ATS): Saints 5-9/6-8; Packers 10-4/8-6.

Outlook: That’s a big number, but the Packers have won by 17, 13 and 18 in their last four games (losing only to the Lions, 34-31) and now face a dome team at Lambeau.

Pick: Packers 34, Saints 17.