Global oil prices plunge

Tengrinews.kz — Global oil prices fell sharply amid uncertainty in the global market following tighter U.S. sanctions against Iran. Brent crude dropped to around $85 per barrel.
As of 8:10 a.m. Astana time, November futures for Brent crude on London’s ICE exchange were down 5.89 percent at $85.20 per barrel.

October futures for U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 5.65 percent to $80.20 per barrel.

Why oil prices fell
Experts cite uncertainty over the future course of the U.S.-Iran conflict as one of the reasons for the decline. Traders are assessing the impact of new U.S. sanctions and their possible effect on oil supplies.
Earlier, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced sanctions against more than 60 Iran-linked entities, individuals and vessels. According to him, Washington intends to restrict funding sources for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The United States has also reportedly named a condition for lifting Iran’s “economic isolation.”
Analysts believe that Washington’s shift from military confrontation to economic pressure has eased concerns among oil market participants. In their view, the sanctions announced against Iran were less severe than some traders had expected.
Profit-taking after a prolonged rise in prices also contributed to the decline.
At the same time, analysts warn that the drop may be temporary. The situation could change rapidly in the event of renewed escalation in the Middle East, attacks on energy infrastructure or disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Why this matters for Kazakhstan
Oil and gas industry expert Askar Ismailov previously noted that oil prices affect government budget revenues, the National Fund and the tenge exchange rate. Instability in the oil market increases risks for the economy. Sharp price fluctuations affect inflation, investment activity and financial markets. Kazakhstan’s dependence on oil revenues makes the country vulnerable to external shocks.
At the same time, Kazakhstan’s 2026–2028 budget is based on key assumptions of an oil price of $60 per barrel and an exchange rate of 540 tenge per U.S. dollar. These benchmarks are used to calculate export revenues, social payments and government spending.