Rain, warming, and first frosts: what autumn will be like in Almaty

Tengrinews.kz — Autumn in Almaty is expected to remain within the climatic norm. Forecasters have outlined what weather to expect in September, October and November, and when rain is most likely.
According to Daulet Kisebayev, head of the weather forecasting department at Kazhydromet for Almaty and Almaty Region, air temperatures throughout all three autumn months are expected to stay close to the climatic norm.
What will autumn weather be like in Almaty
In September, the average temperature is forecast at +17.5°C, compared with the norm of +18°C. In October, the average is expected to be +10.6°C, which is in line with the climatic norm. In November, it is forecast at around +2.9°C.
Almaty residents may also get a traditional Indian summer. Periods of warm, dry and sunny weather are possible during autumn. However, it is not yet possible to determine exactly when they will occur or how long they will last.
Precipitation is also expected to remain close to normal levels: 28 millimeters in September, 50 millimeters in October and 55 millimeters in November.

“In September, mainly short-term rain is forecast. It is most likely in the middle of the first ten-day period, at the beginning and end of the second, and at the beginning and end of the third ten-day period of the month,” he said.

The forecaster noted that seasonal and monthly outlooks do not show exact weather conditions for each individual day.

“Seasonal and monthly forecasts are probabilistic and advisory. They show the general temperature background and expected precipitation totals, as well as approximate weather conditions by ten-day periods. The forecasts are refined as the date approaches,” Kisebayev explained.

He also clarified what “normal” means in relation to precipitation.

“The term ‘normal’ refers to the total amount of precipitation over the month. It does not mean that rain will be evenly distributed or light. There may be prolonged dry periods alternating with individual episodes of intense precipitation,” the specialist noted.

The likelihood of heavy rain on a particular day is determined through short-term and weekly forecasts.
First frosts
According to Kisebayev, the first ground frosts in Almaty may occur as early as the third ten-day period of September in foothill areas. Nighttime air temperatures may still remain above freezing, at around +1°C to +6°C.
Colder weather will arrive earlier in the mountains, where frosts of up to -6°C are possible. Rain mixed with sleet may already occur there by the end of the second ten-day period of September.
Forecasters are not yet predicting when the first snow will fall in Almaty itself. Even if sleet occurs in autumn, it does not necessarily mean that a stable snow cover will form.