Why North Korea Will Test Another Nuclear Weapon Soon

Christine Kim, David Brunnstrom

Security, Asia

Pyongyang claims to have tested a hydrogen bomb. This has not been proven—yet.

North Korea says it has developed intercontinental missiles capable of targeting any place in the United States.

Now comes the hard part of fulfilling the declared goal of its leader Kim Jong Un: perfecting a nuclear device small and light enough to fit on the missile without affecting its range as well as making it capable of surviving re-entry into the earth’s atmosphere.

To do that, weapons experts say, the isolated state needs to carry out at least another nuclear test, its sixth, and more tests of long-range missiles.

North Korea’s two tests of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) last month likely carried a payload lighter than any nuclear warhead it is currently able to produce, the experts said.

One way to have a lighter warhead would be to concentrate on developing a thermonuclear device, or hydrogen bomb, which would offer much greater explosive yield relative to size and weight.

Pyongyang claims to have tested a hydrogen bomb, but this has not been proven, said Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Program at the Federation of American Scientists.

“Doing so would take several more nuclear tests,” he said. “The advantage of a thermonuclear warhead is that it packs a lot more power into less weight.”

Choi Jin-wook, a professor of international relations at Japan’s Ritsumeikan University and former president of South Korea’s state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, said a sixth nuclear test would be essential for North Korea to develop an operational nuclear-tipped ICBM.

“In order to make a nuclear weapon deployable it has to be small and light, but North Korea doesn’t seem to have this technology,” he said.

South Korea’s president said on Thursday Pyongyang would be “crossing a red line” if it put a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental ballistic missile, and US President Donald Trump has warned that North Korea would face “fire and fury” if it threatened the United States.

Kim’s risks

North Korea is a highly secretive nation and predictions of what it will do next are often little more than conjecture.

Still, Kim is likely to be carefully weighing the timing of even a new nuclear test because it will antagonize North Korea’s sole major ally, China, and could trigger even tougher UN economic sanctions than those that followed ICBM tests in July.

Read full article