What Donald Trump Should Do in Asia
Nirav S. Patel
Politics, Asia
Out of the gate, Mr. Trump has already signaled that Asia is high on his agenda--and much needs to be done.
The new President’s historic campaign has generated a potent cocktail of anxiety, mistrust, and intrigue in key capitals throughout the Asia-Pacific. Mr. Trump’s call with Taiwan’s President Tsai-ing Wen shook the theological basis of U.S. posture and foreign policy in Asia. While it is true that it was just a phone call, many in Asia view it as a possible indicator of wholesale changes in U.S. foreign policy. President Trump’s efforts to challenge China on a range of strategic and economic interests are being closely watched (and privately welcomed) by most partners and allies throughout the region who want to see more pressure and push back against Beijing. However, these same leaders fear that recent statements discrediting the One China policy are an ominous harbinger of things to come. Leaders in Asia are carefully studying Mr. Trump’s words to determine whether or not they reflect a true policy shift, or are merely part of a negotiating strategy toward a larger end-game. Throughout the first view critical days of of his presidency, President Trump needs to send a powerful signal of reassurance.
Asian nations crave stability, but from Tokyo to Canberra, leaders and elites are experiencing tremendous uncertainty and anxiety. We are already seeing how that anxiety can translate into behavioral changes, as countries begin to hedge against the possible end of the Trans-Pacific Partnership by engaging with the lower-standard and China-centric Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Even strategic allies like Japan who have already enjoyed strong leader-level engagement with Mr. Trump are taking quiet steps to accelerate their internal dialogue on “autonomous deterrence”--a code-word for acquiring more overtly offensive capabilities like cruise missiles--given President Trump’s campaign rhetoric on the role of alliances. Both of these indicators--one on the trade ledger and the other in the security realm--could easily spiral out of control and present real risks to U.S. interests in the long-term. Going forward, Mr. Trump should advance a near-term strategy that seeks to integrate his considerable business experience and knowledge of Asia with a gameplan premised on strategic reassurance, in addition to the articulation of a go-forward Asia strategy.
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